Evaluating Mets' 2023 win total: Back the Over?

D.J. Short, Scott Pianowski and Vaughn Dalzell break down the New York Mets ahead of the 2023 season, evaluating their win total Over/Under, their biggest concerns for the team this season and more.

Video Transcript

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: But if they need something he's going to go out and get it. And they also have a couple of really interesting offensive prospects who are-- Beatty and Alvarez, who are eventually going to fit into this roster. Maybe they don't play opening day, but they have improvements. They maybe are not putting their best lineup on the field opening day, but eventually, those guys get into the mix. They will be active in the trade deadline. You know, Cohen doesn't care what the tag is, he doesn't care what the bar bill is, he just wants to win a championship if he's managing this team or owning this team, running this team the way [? all ?] [? fans ?] would like to.

And I know the NL East is very competitive. There are four very strong teams there. Or three anyway, depending on how you feel about Miami. But I think the Mets have a chance at winning 95, 98 games.

I thought this number was really low. I can't imagine anybody thinks they're going to be an 80-win team unless you think their older pitching is going to break down. And I even like their support starters. I think David Peterson is a guy who should go out and get in fantasy. The Mets right now, I think they already have 97 wins in the back of my mind. It just seems very clear to me that they're a good team and they're going to get what they don't have in the middle of the season.

DJ SHORT: I'm a Mets fan, so I'm automatically like, uh, I don't know if you're jinxing me or what, Scott. But yeah, I mean, they won 101 games last season. And have they really lost eight wins compared to last year? I mean, not to me. I mean, they signed Justin Verlander who won the Al Cy Young Award last season.

You mentioned this rotation is old. And I think that's the biggest concern. Jos Quintana is already out for multiple months Carlos Carrasco is 36 years old. Verlander and Scherzer are in the back nine in their career. If like two or three of those guys go down and you really have to rely on the David Peterson's Tyler McGill's to fill that gap, maybe they're not quite as good as we might think. I think that number going down to 91.5 in these other books is a reflection in the Diaz news. And I get that to some degree, but I still think-- like you said, I mean, Beatty Alvarez, they could be big difference makers for this team.

The Mets really didn't bolster their lineup. They kept their guys. Like they resigned Brandon Nimmo. You know, that was like the big move offensively. They almost got Carlos Correa. So they really didn't do much offensive-wise. I think the reason why is because they expect Beatty and Alvarez to come up eventually and give a boost there offensively.

But yeah, I think they're-- I think they're going to be in that 90-95 win range probably. But I'm a Mets fan, so I'm automatically anxious.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: I also love that their two best offensive players, Lindor and Alonso, are still in their 20s. It's completely reasonable they haven't had their best seasons yet. Some year, Alonso is going to be MVP of the league. And Lindor we know didn't hit at the very beginning of his Mets career, but he's been a terrific player for the last year and a half.

VAUGHN DALZELL: And I don't have, honestly, too much to add because I thought that was terrific breakdowns by both of you guys. And DJ, I know you were super excited to talk about the Mets. But yeah, the only concern to me would be that the rotation is a little bit older, but we know how valuable these guys are at that age still that Verlander Cy Young sure is going to be up for that. So I'm not really worried about that at all.

I think they are another 100-win team. And when I was looking at future tickets to win it all, I'm considering the Mets, and that scares me, DJ. So I just want to take--


VAUGHN DALZELL: I just want to take the win total and get my money and then play it by ear after that.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Also, the best TV booth by far is the three-man booth of Gary Cohen, Ron Darling, and Keith Hernandez now that Vin Scully-- we've lost him. And man, do we miss Vin Scully. But the Mets are just worth watching just for those guys.