ESPN's Tom Luginbill explains Arch Manning's fall from top spot in recruiting rankings

Arch Manning falling from the top spot of ESPN’s recruiting rankings for the Class of 2023 last week was one of the more surprising recruiting developments in some time.

The most recognizable name in high school football and nephew of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks Peyton and Eli Manning, the Isidore Newman senior has been the longtime consensus No. 1 overall prospect in all of the national services’ rankings for his class for years.

Manning remains the top overall recruit in 2023 in three of four recruiting outlets, but ESPN moved USC commit and California native Malachi Nelson up to No. 1 above Manning.

Tom Luginbill, ESPN's national recruiting director, explained the slip from Manning to The Daily Advertiser, saying Manning’s drop to No. 2 was about seeing more and more of the other talented quarterbacks in the 2023 class during the past several months.

“When we came into this class and were looking at them as underclassmen, it was in the middle of a pandemic. In Louisiana, as far as Arch was concerned, Arch’s season and evaluation was not impacted because he was not missing time and he had three years as a starter,” Luginbill said. “The other guys’ seasons had been affected by the pandemic.

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“Eli Holstein, Malachi Nelson, Dante Moore, Jaden Rashada, Nicholaus Iamaleava, we didn’t have a good sample size. We realized we needed bigger sample sizes of other guys, and that only comes through full seasons. That would’ve been normal information we would’ve had two years ago. But this has primarily been a class that’s missed a camp and combine circuit.”

It’s a lengthy process for Luginbill and his staff at ESPN. As they gathered more information, observing and evaluating other top quarterbacks in the 2023 class at camps and skill showcases (which Manning chose not to attend this cycle), the slim gap closed in the ESPN ratings.

“We were in no rush to change for the sake of change. This wasn’t about that. This was more about gathering info. Whether it was at the Elite 11 or the Under Armour Camp series, we saw so many guys in operation that we hadn’t seen in two years because of the pandemic,” Luginbill said.

“Not knocking Arch. We went back and studied the other prospects’ seasons. But we got to see them and Arch chose not to participate in those. But really, Arch got a head start with the collegiate camps early in his freshman and sophomore years, and he’s played a full three seasons. What it came down to for us was level of competition that Arch is playing is not the same in comparison.”

One of most widely followed recruitments in some time with offers from every big-name college football program, including Alabama, Georgia, LSU among others, Manning committed to Texas in June.

During his junior season in 2021, Manning threw for 1,913 yards with 26 touchdowns while also rushing for six scores and 381 yards for Isidore Newman, which lost to Lafayette Christian by six touchdowns in the state semifinals.

Former Rivals recruiting director Mike Farrell said if not for his last name, Manning would be a high, three-star quarterback, that he hasn’t “progressed” since his freshman year and that he hasn’t stepped up against better competition.

Luginbill echoed that Manning has not performed well against quality competition but still sees him as one of the top quarterback prospects in his class, just not the top one presently.

“Level of competition," Luginbill said. " That would be a significant part of it between Arch and Malachi. Malachi going back to last spring, showed up to every event he possibly could. There was more to see against his peers and we take that stuff into account,” Luginbill said. “It would’ve helped Arch Manning if he had gone to every camp he could.

“All of the hype and exposure, but also because of last name, he’s going to receive a lot of doubt and negativity. If he had gone out and done those things, I think it would’ve t curtailed that scrutiny some. That’s got to go into the equation.”

ESPN will update their class of 2023 recruiting rankings again before it’s finalized and there’ll be chances for Manning to reclaim the No. 1 spot, Luginbill said.

“I need to see what Arch does in the playoffs, how he plays against teams that are better than the one he’s on,” Luginbill said. “He’s need to elevate his team. ... A player of his stature, the expectation level he’s never going to escape, but he needs to play his best games against the best teams on his schedule.”

Cory Diaz covers the LSU Tigers and Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns for The Daily Advertiser as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his Tigers and Cajuns coverage on Twitter: @ByCoryDiaz. Got questions regarding LSU/UL athletics? Send them to Cory Diaz at bdiaz@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Lafayette Daily Advertiser: Why ESPN dropped Arch Manning from No. 1 recruiting ranking