ESPN updates Ohio State’s percentage chances of winning each of its three remaining regular season games
For the third straight week, Ohio State struggled in the first half and had to make adjustments and work on a new mindset in the second half to pull away for a victory. This time it was on the road in the middle of what looked like a non-tropical monsoon at Northwestern.
Not many in the national media were impressed by the Buckeyes’ performance, and we’ve already seen some fallout. If you’ve followed almost any team’s championship run, there always seems to be a game or two where it has to find a way pull victory out of the fire.
But how did it all affect Ohio State’s chances of winning ch of its three remaining home games? We keep tabs on ESPN’s matchup predictor based on its Football Power Index (FPI) and have done so since Week 1.
To date, there hasn’t been a week in which Ohio State hasn’t been favored to win according to ESPN, but did Michigan’s blowout win over Rutgers change that?
Here is what the ESPN FPI matchup predictor says about Ohio State’s chances of winning each of its remaining games against Indiana, Maryland and yes — those Wolverines.
Saturday, Nov. 12, vs. Indiana
Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) runs the ball during the second quarter of an NCAA Division I football game between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021, at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana. USA TODAY Sports
How it all breaks down
Venue | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 98.5% (⇔ from 98.5%)
All-Time Series | OSU leads, 77-12-5
Projected running record: 10-0
Saturday, Nov. 19, at Maryland
Nov. 20, 2021; College Park; Maryland Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (3) throws from the pocket against the Michigan Wolverines during the first half at Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium. Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Venue | Maryland Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 88.1% (⇑ from 87.5%)
All-Time Series | OSU leads, 7-0
Projected running record: 11-0
Saturday, Nov. 26, vs. Michigan
Oct. 15, 2022; Ann Arbor; Michigan Wolverines cheerleader celebrates after a touchdown in the second half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Stadium. Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
How it all breaks down
Venue | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 74.6% (⇓ from 74.8%)
All-Time Series | OSU trails, 51-59-6
Projected Final Regular Season record: 12-0
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