ESPN predicts each 2022 Wisconsin football game using FPI

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ESPN recently released the numbers for their 2022 College Football Power Index rankings, also known as FPI.

The network uses FPI as a predictive model every preseason, with predicted win percentages for each college football game as well as data on how likely a team will be to advance to the playoff or win the national championship.

This season, Wisconsin is expected to go 9-3 if FPI’s metrics hold. The Badgers are favored in all but three contests, with those matchups being at Ohio State, at Michigan State, and at Nebraska.

Here is a look at the win probability for each Wisconsin game this season according to ESPN’s FPI:

September 3 vs Illinois State: 97% Win Probability

Dec 30, 2021; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz (5) warms up before facing the Arizona State Sun Devils in the 2021 Las Vegas Bowl at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

September 10 vs. Washington State: 89% Win Probability

Dec 30, 2021; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) celebrates after gaining a first down against the Arizona State Sun Devils late in the fourth quarter during the 2021 Las Vegas Bowl at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

September 17 vs. New Mexico State: 99% Win Probability

Paul Chryst
Paul Chryst

Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst walks onto the field before a game against Penn State at Beaver Stadium in State College, Pennsylvania, on Nov. 10, 2018. (Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports)

September 24 at Ohio State: 8% Win Probability

Apr 17, 2021; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback CJ Stroud (7) during the annual spring game at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

October 1 vs. Illinois: 86% Win Probability

Oct 9, 2021; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema during the first half of Saturday’s game with the Wisconsin Badgers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

October 8 at Northwestern: 79% Win Probability

Nov 13, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) celebrates with fans after spring a touchdown during the third quarter against the Northwestern Wildcats at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

October 15 at Michigan State: 63% Win Probability

Dec 30, 2021; Atlanta, GA, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Payton Thorne (10) celebrates after a victory against the Pittsburgh Panthers in the second half during the 2021 Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

 

October 22 vs. Purdue: 72% Win Probability

Purdue wide receiver Milton Wright (0) runs the ball against Wisconsin inside linebacker Leo Chenal (5) during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021 at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette.
Cfb Purdue Vs Wisconsin

November 5 vs Maryland: 71% Win Probability

Paul Chryst
Paul Chryst

Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst watches the action during a game against LSU at Lambeau Field in Green Bay on Sept. 3, 2016. (Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)

November 12 at Iowa: 54% Win Probability

Oct 30, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz (5) drops back to pass during the third quarter against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

November 19 at Nebraska: 49% Win Probability

Aug 28, 2021; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Nebraska head coach Scott Frost watches his team in the first quarter with Illinois at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

November 26 vs. Minnesota: 70% Win Probability

Nov 30, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers punter Connor Allen (90) holds up the Paul Bunyan Axe Trophy after defeating the Minnesota Golden Gophers at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Record: 8.2-4.1

Paul Chryst
Paul Chryst

Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst celebrates his team’s victory over Miami in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Dec. 30, 2017. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)

Chance to win 6 or more games; 97%

Sep 25, 2021; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Isaac Guerendo (20) runs the ball against Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman Jayson Ademilola (57) during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Chance to win Big Ten West: 28.2%

Jul 23, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Paul Chryst speaks to the media during Big 10 media days at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

Chance to win Big Ten conference: 4.6%

Paul Chryst
Paul Chryst

Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst walks onto the field before a game against Penn State at Beaver Stadium in State College, Pennsylvania, on Nov. 10, 2018. (Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports)

Chance to make CFP Playoff: 0.6%

Jan 11, 2021; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Confetti falls onto the field after the Alabama Crimson Tide beat the Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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