ESPN’s FPI has Vikings with 29% chance to win NFC North
The Minnesota Vikings are continuing to be doubted. ESPN’s Football Power Index has them as the 15th-best team entering the 2023 season just one year after finishing with a 13-4 record.
Along with their overall projections, the Football Power Index doesn’t believe they have a great shot to win the NFC North, giving the Vikings a 29% chance to become division champions.
The Detroit Lions have a 43% chance to win the division with the Chicago Bears at 16% and the Green Bay Packers in last at 12%. Explaining the models findings, Seth Walder explained that there is data that shows the Lions are a better team.
Although the Minnesota Vikings won the division last season with 13 wins, and the Lions missed the playoffs with nine, there’s evidence that Detroit was — and is — the better team. It had a higher points differential (plus-26) than Minnesota (minus-3) a year ago, and the Lions ranked fourth in EPA per play on offense (Minnesota was 15th).
Will the Lions finally live up to their potential? We will know that answer as the season unfolds. However, don’t sleep on the Vikings.