ESPN FPI updates Ohio State’s chances of winning its last two regular season games

The sands of the hourglass are running out in Ohio State football’s 2021 season, and there’s still everything to play for that was out there to start the season. But the road is still perilous with two of the most difficult games left on the schedule, against Michigan State, and then the usual regular-season ending donnybrook against Michigan.

We’ve been following the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) throughout the season to see what its matchup predictor says about the Buckeyes’ chances of winning each game on the season, and it’s been fairly consistent throughout. However, there was a point when the Wolverines were favored over the Buckeyes, and we’ve also seen the percentage chance of winning ebb and flow with how productive OSU has been and with the up and down season within the Big Ten itself.

It’s time to check in again, so here’s what the ESPN FPI says about Ohio State’s chances of beating the Spartans this coming weekend and the Wolverines in the season finale.

Nov. 20 vs. Michigan State

Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III (9) runs against Michigan defensive back R.J. Moten (6) during the second half at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 86.2% (down from 86.5%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 34-15

Projected running record: 10-1

Nov. 27 at Michigan

Michigan Wolverines defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97), linebacker Josh Ross (12), and defensive tackle Christopher Hinton (15) get ready during second-half action against the Western Michigan Broncos Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 61.6% (down from 62.2%)
All-Time Series: Michigan leads 58-51-6

Projected running record: 11-1

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