ESPN FPI Update: Surprise team now holds highest probability to win Pac-12 Championship

If you lose a game, confidence levels in your abilities are going to drop.

It should come as no surprise that following the Oregon Ducks’ loss to the Washington Huskies on Saturday night offered a major blow to Dan Lanning’s College Football Playoff chances, as well as his teams’ Pac-12 Championship opportunities as well.

The Ducks are still in a position where if they take care of business and win the final two games on their schedule, they will make it to Las Vegas for the title game. However, the final two games are anything but easy, facing the No. 10 Utah Utes and No. 25 Oregon State Beavers.

As I said above, confidence in the Ducks is waning after their loss to Washington.

Oregon is no longer the favorite to win the Pac-12 title, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, and their chances to make the CFP have tanked, though they aren’t yet at zero.

Here’s how ESPN’s FPI views the rest of the schedule for the Ducks:

Week 12 vs. No. 10 Utah Utes

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Updated Win Percentage: 48.2% Oregon Win

Former Win Percentage: 55.3% Oregon Win

CONTEXT: To nobody’s surprise, the Ducks are no longer favored to win this game against the Utes. Coming off of a tough loss to Washington, and potentially having your starting quarterback injured has caused some confidence in the Ducks to wane, so it will be interesting how much fire they come out and play with as they look for revenge after the way that last year ended.

Week 13 at Oregon State Beavers

(Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images)

Updated Win Percentage: 60.5% Oregon Win

Former Win Percentage: 67.5% Oregon Win

CONTEXT: Are the Ducks really going to lose to both Washington and Oregon State in the same year? That would be a brutal start to the Dan Lanning era, even if Oregon won every other game on the schedule. On paper, the Ducks have the upper-hand in this matchup by a good margin. We saw how that played out against the Huskies, though.

Oregon Season Outlook

Win Conference:  26.0%

  • Previous: 33.1%

Make College Football Playoff: 1.4%

  • Previous: 14.6%

Make National Championship:  0.4%

  • Previous: 4.0 %

Win National Championship: 0.1%

  • Previous: 1.2%

Pac-12 Title Chances

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

  1. Utah Utes (36.7%)

  2. USC Trojans (27.7%)

  3. Oregon Ducks (26.0%)

  4. UCLA Bruins (6.6%)

  5. Washington Huskies (3.0%)

College Football Playoff Chances

(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

  1. USC Trojans (7.2%)

  2. Utah Utes (4.0%)

  3. Oregon Ducks (1.4%)

Story originally appeared on Ducks Wire