ESPN FPI sees real trouble ahead for the Wisconsin Badgers

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The Wisconsin Badgers have righted the ship with two straight victories, improving to 3-3 on the 2021 season and 1-2 in Big Ten play.

The team now controls its own destiny in the Big Ten West thanks to Iowa’s loss to Purdue. That means Wisconsin has a shot at winning out and capturing the division.

It’s a tough ask for a team that has shown signs of weakness this season, especially against good teams.

Related: Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 7 — Chaos, again

ESPN FPI thinks that path may be a bit tougher than some Badger fans believe, especially after Saturday’s results around the conference.

Here is FPI’s updated game-by-game prediction for the Wisconsin Badgers:

Oct. 23 at Purdue

Purdue tight end Payne Durham (87) celebrates a touchdown during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021 at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette. Credit: Nikos Frazier / Journal & Courier-Imagn Content Services, LLC

Predicted Winner: Purdue
Badgers Win Probability: 44.8% (Previous: 57.2%)

Projected running record: 3-4

Oct. 30 vs. Iowa

Oct 9, 2021; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Spencer Petras (7) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Iowa
Badgers Win Probability: 42.1% (Previous: 36.7%)

Projected running record: 3-5

Nov. 6 at Rutgers

Oct 9, 2021; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans running back Kenneth Walker III (9) is tackled by Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive back Desmond Igbinosun (34) during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 62.6% (Previous: 59.4%)

Projected running record: 4-5

Nov. 13 vs. Northwestern

Sep 3, 2021; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald reacts after a play against the Michigan State Spartans during the fourth quarter at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 83.2% (Previous: 85.8%)

Projected running record: 5-5

Nov. 20 at Nebraska

Aug 28, 2021; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Nebraska defensive lineman Tate Wildeman (92) tries to get a hand on Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Nebraska
Badgers Win Probability: 49.4% (Previous: 49%)

Projected running record: 5-6

Nov. 27 at Minnesota

Sep 2, 2021; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Gophers running back Bryce Williams (21) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 50.4% (Previous: 57.9%)

Projected running record: 6-6

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