Advertisement

ESPN’s FPI ranking plus other data following Florida football’s Week 1 loss

Things did not go the way Billy Napier and his Florida football team thought they would in their season-opening game against the Utah Utes. The second in a series of home-and-home matchups with the Pac-12 school, the home team got its revenge on the Gators for a crushing defeat in the Swamp last year with a 24-11 victory in Salt Lake City.

It was not just that Napier and Co. lost the game — it was how they lost it. The team was plagued by procedural penalties and other boneheaded mistakes that ultimately lay on the coaching staff’s shoulders. The ugliness of the affair sent the Orange and Blue tumbling down the rankings, both subjective and objective.

Among the latter is ESPN’s Football Power Index, which was developed by ESPN in 2013 to measure each team’s overall strength and predict results throughout the season. As the schedule progresses, the data used to determine a team’s FPI ranking will come from the games played while also predicting the outcomes for each future matchup.

The FPI’s numbers this week saw a steep fall for Florida in the rankings and among other numbers. This week also debuted three new data sets: overall efficiency, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.

Take a look below at ESPN’s FPI numbers for Florida following its disappointing Week 1 loss out west to Utah.

Overall Ranking

Chris Gardner/Getty Images
Chris Gardner/Getty Images

No. 32 overall

Value: 8.8

Florida dropped seven spots from their position in last week’s FPI rankings after the Utah loss.

Projected Record

Chris Gardner/Getty Images
Chris Gardner/Getty Images

2023 Projected Record: 5.7-6.4

Before the loss, Florida was projected for a 6.1-5.9 record, so the change of nearly half a win is fairly significant.

Overall Efficiency

Chris Gardner/Getty Images
Chris Gardner/Getty Images

Overall Efficiency: 52.5

Rank: 58

The Gators looked lame for most of the game in Week 1 in all aspects, including special teams.

Offensive Efficiency

Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

Offensive Efficiency: 46.6

Rank: 75

The absence of the run game and the sheer mediocrity of the passing game has the Gators mired in the middle of the pack on offense.

Defensive Efficiency

Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive Efficiency: 70.8

Rank: 48

Some consider the defensive effort against the Utes to be the lone bright spot — aside from the 70-yard dagger on the opening play — but they barely crack the top 50 in this category.

Win Out Percentage

Chris Gardner/Getty Images
Chris Gardner/Getty Images

Win Out Percentage: 0%

Florida’s number coming into the game was zero and that door is firmly slammed shut now.

Six-Plus Wins Percentage

Chris Gardner/Getty Images
Chris Gardner/Getty Images

Six-Plus Wins Percentage: 53.6%

Florida’s chances of cracking the six-win mark took a hit with the loss, dropping nearly nine percentage points from 62.3% in last week’s update.

Chances of Winning SEC East

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of Winning SEC East: 3.5%

One would not expect a non-conference game to affect the Gators’ chances in its own division, but oddly enough, Florida gained 0.1 percentage points from last week’s 3.4% mark.

Chances of Winning SEC

Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports
Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of Winning SEC: 0.5%

Funny enough, Florida’s chances of winning the SEC as a whole dropped 0.2% from 0.7% ahead of the loss.

Chances of Making the Playoffs

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of Making the Playoffs: 0.1%

Last week, it was 0.8%… now Florida football is clinging by the skin of its teeth in this category.

Chances of Making National Championship Game

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of Making National Championship Game: 0%

The 0.2% chance the Gators had in the last update completely evaporated as the FPI has lost any faith it may have had.

Chances of Winning National Championship

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Chances of Winning National Championship: 0%

The Gators did have a silver of a chance with 0.1% entering the game but the loss erased any hopes of gridiron glory.

Follow

Follow us @GatorsWire on Twitter and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.

Story originally appeared on Gators Wire