ESPN’s FPI ranking plus other data following Florida football’s Week 1 loss
Things did not go the way Billy Napier and his Florida football team thought they would in their season-opening game against the Utah Utes. The second in a series of home-and-home matchups with the Pac-12 school, the home team got its revenge on the Gators for a crushing defeat in the Swamp last year with a 24-11 victory in Salt Lake City.
It was not just that Napier and Co. lost the game — it was how they lost it. The team was plagued by procedural penalties and other boneheaded mistakes that ultimately lay on the coaching staff’s shoulders. The ugliness of the affair sent the Orange and Blue tumbling down the rankings, both subjective and objective.
Among the latter is ESPN’s Football Power Index, which was developed by ESPN in 2013 to measure each team’s overall strength and predict results throughout the season. As the schedule progresses, the data used to determine a team’s FPI ranking will come from the games played while also predicting the outcomes for each future matchup.
The FPI’s numbers this week saw a steep fall for Florida in the rankings and among other numbers. This week also debuted three new data sets: overall efficiency, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.
Take a look below at ESPN’s FPI numbers for Florida following its disappointing Week 1 loss out west to Utah.
Overall Ranking
No. 32 overall
Value: 8.8
Florida dropped seven spots from their position in last week’s FPI rankings after the Utah loss.
Projected Record
2023 Projected Record: 5.7-6.4
Before the loss, Florida was projected for a 6.1-5.9 record, so the change of nearly half a win is fairly significant.
Overall Efficiency
Overall Efficiency: 52.5
Rank: 58
The Gators looked lame for most of the game in Week 1 in all aspects, including special teams.
Offensive Efficiency
Offensive Efficiency: 46.6
Rank: 75
The absence of the run game and the sheer mediocrity of the passing game has the Gators mired in the middle of the pack on offense.
Defensive Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency: 70.8
Rank: 48
Some consider the defensive effort against the Utes to be the lone bright spot — aside from the 70-yard dagger on the opening play — but they barely crack the top 50 in this category.
Win Out Percentage
Win Out Percentage: 0%
Florida’s number coming into the game was zero and that door is firmly slammed shut now.
Six-Plus Wins Percentage
Six-Plus Wins Percentage: 53.6%
Florida’s chances of cracking the six-win mark took a hit with the loss, dropping nearly nine percentage points from 62.3% in last week’s update.
Chances of Winning SEC East
Chances of Winning SEC East: 3.5%
One would not expect a non-conference game to affect the Gators’ chances in its own division, but oddly enough, Florida gained 0.1 percentage points from last week’s 3.4% mark.
Chances of Winning SEC
Chances of Winning SEC: 0.5%
Funny enough, Florida’s chances of winning the SEC as a whole dropped 0.2% from 0.7% ahead of the loss.
Chances of Making the Playoffs
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 0.1%
Last week, it was 0.8%… now Florida football is clinging by the skin of its teeth in this category.
Chances of Making National Championship Game
Chances of Making National Championship Game: 0%
The 0.2% chance the Gators had in the last update completely evaporated as the FPI has lost any faith it may have had.
Chances of Winning National Championship
Chances of Winning National Championship: 0%
The Gators did have a silver of a chance with 0.1% entering the game but the loss erased any hopes of gridiron glory.
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