ESPN’s FPI ranking plus other data after Gators’ Week 10 loss to Arkansas

Billy Napier and his Florida football program we delivered a serious blow last Saturday against the visiting Arkansas Razorbacks, who outlasted the Gators, 39-36, in overtime. It was the first SEC win of the season for the visitors and the first-ever win in the Swamp for the Hogs.

Following the game, ESPN updated its Football Power Index along with other related data for the college football landscape, including the Orange and Blue. As one might expect, the program’s numbers saw some changes after what was seen in Gainesville last Saturday.

The FPI was developed by ESPN in 2013 to measure each team’s overall strength and predict results throughout the season. As the schedule progresses, the data used to determine a team’s FPI ranking will come from the games played while also predicting the outcomes for each future matchup.

Take a look below at ESPN’s FPI numbers and other data for Florida following its Week 10 overtime loss to the Razorbacks.

Overall Ranking

Matt Pendleton/Gainesville <a class="link " href="" data-i13n="sec:content-canvas;subsec:anchor_text;elm:context_link" data-ylk="slk:Sun;sec:content-canvas;subsec:anchor_text;elm:context_link;itc:0">Sun</a>
Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun

No. 39 overall

Value: 6.4

Believe it or not, the Gators actually gained a spot in the rankings, up from No. 40 despite their value remaining the same.

Projected Record

Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports
Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

2023 Projected Record: 5.6-6.4

Florida lost a half-game in the projected record after the loss, down from 6.1-5.9 last week.

Overall Efficiency

Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun
Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun

Overall Efficiency: 58.1

Rank: 51

The team’s overall efficiency rating dropped 0.8 points, resulting in a two-spot slip in the rankings.

Offensive Efficiency

Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun
Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun

Offensive Efficiency: 66.7

Rank: 27

The Gators’ offensive efficiency rating dropped 0.7 points, resulting in a four-spot slide in the rankings.

Defensive Efficiency

Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun
Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun

Defensive Efficiency: 43.1

Rank: 86

The Gators lost 1.2 points in the defensive efficiency rating but remained at the same ranking as last week.

Special Teams Efficiency

Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun
Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun

Special Teams Efficiency: 54.7

Rank: 56

Despite the loss falling on the shoulders of the special teams unit, Florida saw a 3.9-point improvement in the ratings, resulting in a 16-spot jump in the rankings. The STU continues to move upward after starting at the bottom of the pile.

Win Out Percentage

Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun
Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun

Win Out Percentage: 0.7%

Somehow, Florida’s win-out percentage increased 0.4% after the loss.

Six-Plus Wins Percentage

Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun
Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun

Six-Plus Wins Percentage: 46.7%

On the other hand, the Gators’ chances at six-plus wins — and ostensibly a bowl berth — dropped from 73.7% before the loss.

Chances of Winning SEC East

Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun
Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun

Chances of Winning SEC East: 0%

What was a bare thread chance at 0.1% last week is now a “not gonna happen” zero percent.

Chances of Winning SEC

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of Winning SEC: 0%

Last week, the Orange and Blue had a 0.5% chance but that evaporated with the UGA loss.

Chances of Making the Playoffs

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Chances of Making the Playoffs: 0.0%

No changes here, nor are any expected this season.

Chances of Making National Championship Game

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of Making National Championship Game: 0%

Weeks ago, the Gators had a 0.1% chance of making the final stage of the college football season, but alas, that evaporated after the Charlotte game.

Chances of Winning National Championship

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of Winning National Championship: 0%

And finally, Florida’s chances of surprising the entire college football world are once again zip, zilch, nada.

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Story originally appeared on Gators Wire