ESPN FPI projects Notre Dame’s remaining 5 games

Notre Dame got back in the win column on Saturday as they bested UNLV to improve to 4-3.  The win isn’t going to win any kind of award for best performance but it was a victory nonetheless and got the Fighting Irish another step closer to bowl eligibility.

ESPN updated their Football Power Index with all the data from college football’s Week 8 and applied them to the remainder of the season.  Below is the chances FPI gives Notre Dame in each of their remaining games as well as the chances the Irish can reach certain benchmarks with what remains this fall.r

Oct. 29 at Syracuse

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Week 9 at Syracuse

FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 39.3% (Down 4.9% from last week)

Nov. 5 vs. Clemson

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Week 10 vs. Clemson

FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 28.7% (Down 1.2% from last week)

Nov. 12 vs. Navy (Baltimore)

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Week 11 vs. Navy in Baltimore

FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 87.2% (Up 0.7% from last week)

Nov. 19 vs. Boston College

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Week 12 vs. Boston College

FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 92.0% (Down 0.1% from last week)

Nov. 26 at USC

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Week 13 at USC

FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 22.2% (Down 2.7% from last week)

Notre Dame FPI Note 1 of 4: Irish Overall Ranking

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Notre Dame’s win over UNLV didn’t do anything to wow the FPI and move them up despite the lopsided score but it didn’t do anything to harm them either.  For the second week in a row, Notre Dame checked in 21st overall according to FPI.

Notre Dame FPI Note 2 of 4: Still a chance to win out!

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How unremarkable was Notre Dame’s victory over UNLV in the eyes of FPI?  The Irish won which makes another win a guarantee but the odds Notre Dame wins out, not that they were great before, dropped from 2.5% to 1.9% despite having one less game to play.

Notre Dame FPI Note 3 of 4: Bowl Eligibility

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Notre Dame’s chances of winning enough games to become bowl-eligible took a slight step in the right direction as the win over UNLV vaulted the Irish from a 91.6% chance of winning at least six games to 93.1%.

But would Notre Dame without question accept a bowl bid at 6-6?

Notre Dame FPI Note 4 of 4: Ultimate record projection


Notre Dame’s ultimate record projection remained the same as a week ago as FPI has the Irish pegged for a 6.7-5.3 mark.  For comparison, before the loss to Stanford, FPI called for Notre Dame to go 7.9-4.1

Story originally appeared on Fighting Irish Wire