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ESPN FPI’s projects Notre Dame’s final eight games

Notre Dame survived the first two weeks by the skin of their teeth as they snuck by both Florida State and Toledo before looking a little better against Purdue and dominating the fourth quarter against Wisconsin.

The Wisconsin game was the first of a stretch of five-straight games for Notre Dame that is the toughest part of the schedule. After No. 7 Cincinnati this week it’ll be a trip to Virginia Tech before a bye week and then home contests against both USC and North Carolina.

We like to keep an eye on how ESPN’s Football Power Index projects things as the year goes on. Headed into the Cincinnati game here is how FPI sees Notre Dame’s chances in their eight remaining games of 2021:

vs. Cincinnati:

USA TODAY Networks

Game Date: Oct. 2, 2021
Location: at Notre Dame
ESPN FPI Notre Dame Chances of Victory: 57.9%

at Virginia Tech

Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Game Date: Oct. 9, 2021
Location: at Virginia Tech
ESPN FPI Notre Dame Chances of Victory: 58.1%

vs. USC

Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Game Date: Oct. 23, 2021
Location: at Notre Dame
ESPN FPI Notre Dame Chances of Victory: 79.9%

vs. North Carolina

Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Game Date: Oct. 30, 2021
Location: at Notre Dame
ESPN FPI Notre Dame Chances of Victory: 66.5%

vs. Navy

Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Game Date: Nov. 6, 2021
Location: at Notre Dame
ESPN FPI Notre Dame Chances of Victory: 98.8%

at Virginia

Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

Game Date: Nov. 13, 2021
Location: at Virginia
ESPN FPI Notre Dame Chances of Victory: 62.2%

vs. Georgia Tech

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

Game Date: Nov. 20, 2021
Location: at Notre Dame
ESPN FPI Notre Dame Chances of Victory: 74.6%

at Stanford

Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Game Date: Nov. 27, 2021
Location: at Stanford
ESPN FPI Notre Dame Chances of Victory: 68.5%

Reaction:

Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

So ESPN’s FPI has Notre Dame favored in all eight of their remaining games. After their showing against Toledo this same projection had the Irish as the underdog in four of the ten remaining games, including against Wisconsin which they just won.

That’s what happens with more of a sample size as things theoretically get more accurate the larger the sample. With all of that stated, this projection states that it still gives Brian Kelly and the Fighting Irish only a 5.4% chance of winning out this regular season. If the Irish are to win Saturday vs. Cincinnati in what this calls their toughest remaining game (57.9%), I’d be curious to see how much the chances of an unbeaten regular season climb.

Related:

Notre Dame releases depth chart for test with No. 7 Cincinnati

Notre Dame dominates fourth quarter vs. Wisconsin: 5 Instant Takeaways

Notre Dame’s all-time winningest football coaches

Best photos from Notre Dame’s 41-13 win over Wisconsin

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