ESPN FPI Predictions: Oregon Ducks favored to win Pac-12 North, but projected to lose Pac-12 Championship

Every week of the season we’ve released an update on the ESPN Football Power Index projections, showing where the Oregon Ducks currently stand in the perceived race for the College Football Playoff and a potential trip to the National Championship Game.

After their loss to the Utah Utes, though, dreams of making it back to the CFP went out the window. Now, with a 9-2 record, the Ducks dropped to No. 11 in the official CFP rankings on Tuesday night, and their percent chance to make the CFP and National Title consequently dropped to 0.0%, according to the FPI.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Ducks have nothing left to play for. If they can beat Oregon State on Saturday, they will clinch the Pac-12 North Division and earn a re-match against Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Should they win that, they will appear in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.

So what does ESPN’s FPI model think about those scenarios? Well, it says Oregon can accomplish some, but not all of the goals.

Chance to Beat OSU: 73.5%

Chance to Win-Out: 30.1%

Chance to Win Division: 73.7%

Chance to Win Conference: 30.1%

The most important test will come this weekend when the Ducks host the Beavers. If they don’t make it to the conference championship game, Oregon will likely be invited to either the Alamo Bowl or the Holiday Bow, rather than the Rose Bowl or Fiesta Bowl.

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