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ESPN’s Football Power Index doesn’t have the best outlook for the New York Jets.
The former world-wide leader uses their FPI analytics system to project which teams could stand out amongst the rest in the NFL or who might make a run all the way to the Super Bowl.
Flipping that on its head, it also spits out a projection as to who might have the first-overall pick at the upcoming draft.
With the 2022 edition of the rookie event in the rearview mirror, the draft en route is the one to come in 2023. According to ESPN’s FPI, the Jets are already on the clock.
Heading into the summer, ESPN gives the Jets the best chance at holding the first-overall pick next offseason.
Here’s the breakdown:
Chance at No. 1 pick: 13.6%
Chance at top 10: 68.4%
You can see the upside with the Jets. They have Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis and Elijah Moore at receiver. Ahmad Gardner and D.J. Reed are set to lock down the cornerback spots. Carl Lawson is back at edge rusher. And most importantly, they have a potential star in second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. But none of that — most importantly Wilson — is guaranteed to pay off. ESPN’s FPI is betting that most of it likely won’t.
If the Jets are to prove the FPI wrong, it starts and ends with Wilson. A quarterback can’t do it all alone, especially such a young one.
However, a QB prospect showing growth can easily keep a team out of the basement of the NFL’s standings at least.
While ESPN does slot the Jets in as the team most likely to earn the top-overall pick with a 13.6 percent shot at it, there are other contenders as well. The Chicago Bears actually have a better percent look at the 2023 first selection (13.7%), however, their chance at a top-10 pick at 67.9 percent is lower than the Jets (68.4%). Evidently that factors into ESPN’s analytics.
Here’s a rundown of the top-five teams with the best chances at the top pick in 2023, per ESPN FPI:
New York Jets: 13.6%
Chicago Bears: 13.7%
Houston Texans: 11.4%
Jacksonville Jaguars: 9.4%
Atlanta Falcons: 8.6%
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