It’s pretty fair to say that the national perception of the Oregon Ducks took a brutal beating over the weekend.
While not many people expected the Ducks to go into Atlanta and beat the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs, most thought that they could at least be competitive on the same field.
They were not.
Losing 49-3, Oregon showed that they don’t quite yet belong on the same field with Georgia, and the perception now is that the Ducks have a long way to go before they can get back to competing for a championship in Eugene. That’s a tough start to the Dan Lanning era, but one that the team can grow from.
Every week, we will look at ESPN’s Football Power Index to get a feeling for how Oregon is expected to finish out the season, looking at expected winning percentage and chance at making the postseason.
After the first week, the numbers aren’t pretty.
Week 2 vs. Eastern Washington
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Current Win Percentage: 95.7% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: A game that Oregon has no business being contested in. Eastern Washington may be a respectable FCS school, but they are still an FCS school. Expect the Ducks to take out some frustration in this one.
Week 3 vs. BYU
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Current Win Percentage: 48.3% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: We always knew that the BYU game would be tough for Oregon, but after that Week 1 performance, they are no longer favored to win, even at home. We won’t learn much about Oregon this week against Eastern Washington, but I expect to learn a whole lot against a team like BYU.
Week 4 at Washington State
\James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Current Win Percentage: 72.8% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: A sneaky upset pick for the Ducks, I was a little surprised that Oregon was still so heavily favored over Washington State. Strange things can happen up in Pulloose, so Oregon still needs to be on its toes for this one.
Week 5 vs. Stanford
Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
Current Win Percentage: 70.6% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: After last year’s debacle against Stanford, I think Oregon will be ready for this one, and they are absolutely talented enough to blow Stanford out of the water.
Week 6 at Arizona
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Current Win Percentage: 58.3% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: Arizona deserves some respect after their Week 1 win over SDSU, and they’re getting it. The Ducks only have a 58% chance to win, and if things keep going on the current trajection, I could see that dropping.
Week 8 vs. UCLA
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Current Win Percentage: 53.5% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: Oregon didn’t look great in their first game, but neither did UCLA. It appears that Chip Kelly is still trying to figure some things out in Los Angeles.
Week 9 at Califonia
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Current Win Percentage: 61.2% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: Cal’s defense is expected to be their strong suit, but it didn’t look great in Week 1. Sounds familiar. Oregon should be able to win this one, even on the road.
Week 10 at Colorado
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Current Win Percentage: 74.9% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: If there is any winnable game on the schedule, it’s this one. I could see Oregon’s chances to win go up as they get some victories under their belt, and Colorado continues to be Colorado.
Week 11 vs. Washington
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Current Win Percentage: 55.6% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: Among the most important games for Oregon to win, they still hold a slight edge over Washington. It’s going to be a tight match, though.
Week 12 vs. Utah
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Current Win Percentage: 40.4% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: The Utes lost in brutal fashion to Florida on Saturday night, but they at least were competitive with their SEC foe. Nonetheless, their loss helped this number not be as lopsided as it could have been.
Week 13 at Oregon State
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Current Win Percentage: 48.1% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: I would argue the most important game for Oregon to win this season, and the Ducks are no longer a favorite. Absolutely brutal.
(AP Photo/John Bazemore)
Win Conference: 7.4%
Make College Football Playoff: 0.0%
Make National Championship: 0.0 %
Previous: 0.1 %
Win National Championship: 0.0%