It’s been a long season of intrigue and speculation when it comes to predicting which teams are going to make it into the College Football Playoff, and which squads are going to be left on the outside looking in. We’ve spent most of the season here at Ducks Wire checking in with the ESPN Football Power Index after every game, looking to see where the FPI slots Oregon in the national race, and what percent chance they give the Ducks to get into the playoff.
Finally, on Tuesday evening, we will get the clearest picture we’ve had yet, with the first official College Football Playoff rankings coming out on ESPN.
The standings aren’t final, of course, with four weeks left in the season, but it will give us the first clear sense of where the playoff committee sees the best teams in the nation standing.
While we wait for those rankings to come out, we wanted to check back in with the FPI to see how Oregon moved according to the computer after their win over the California Golden Bears. Spoiler alert, the numbers show that the Ducks have the second-best chance to make the CFP at this point in the season, only slightly behind the USC Trojans.
Here’s the remaining season outlook for Oregon according to the FPI:
Week 10 at Colorado Buffaloes
(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Updated Win Percentage: 95.6% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 95.4% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: Copy, and paste. Colorado is among the worst teams in the nation. Even a 99% win probability feels too low.
Week 11 vs. Washington Huskies
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 74.9% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 73.3% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: This is the first of a tough three-game stretch to close the regular season for the Ducks, and one that Oregon has had circled on the schedule all season. Washington may not be as good as we previously thought, but they have a dynamic offense and can give the Ducks a real test in a heated rivalry.
Week 12 vs. No. 12 Utah Utes
(Photo by Chris Gardner/ Getty Images)
Updated Win Percentage: 53.5% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 51.4% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: The Utah situation is strange right now, and certainly one to keep your eye on in the coming weeks. Neither QB Cameron Rising nor RB Tavion Thomas played last week in the win over Washington State, and it’s unclear when they will return to the field. That’s potentially significant for Oregon’s revenge attempt in a few weeks, this time at home.
Week 13 at No. 24 Oregon State Beavers
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 64.5% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 62.0% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: A ranked matchup between Oregon and Oregon State? What a treat! This is a storied rivalry game that unfortunately has lacked some luster in the past couple of decades, but Jonathan Smith has the Beavers playing as well as they have in recent memory, and we should be in for an intense game to close out the regular season.
Oregon Ducks Season Outlook
(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Win Conference: 33.1%
Make College Football Playoff: 7.6%
Make National Championship: 1.8%
Previous: 1.2 %
Win National Championship: 0.6%