The Worldwide Leader has released its initial set of Football Power Index (FPI) rankings, and the numbers put the Cowboys within striking distance of the top of the NFC heading into the 2023 season.

The predictive rating system uses win totals from Caesars Sportsbook and strength of schedule data, but also factors in past team performance and returning starters. What results is a crystal-ball projection of how each team stacks up against a statistically average team on a neutral field.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Eagles and 49ers are still considered the class of the conference, but if Dallas holds to the trajectory they seem to be on currently, they stand to be right in the mix of things come season’s end and perhaps primed to pull a one-game upset that catapults them deep into the playoffs.

Here’s how the Cowboys rank in the key categories.

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Overall FPI ranking: 8

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 30: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates a touchdown pass against the Chicago Bears with teammates Tony Pollard #20 of the Dallas Cowboys and Michael Gallup #13 of the Dallas Cowboys during the first quarter at AT&T Stadium on October 30, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

In the overall FPI rankings, the Cowboys are in eighth place, the third-best team in the NFC, behind Philadelphia (third) and San Francisco (fifth). The rest of the top 10 is made up of AFC squads, with the Lions placing 11th. The Giants are in 14th place, while the Commanders are 21st.

The Cowboys are one of three teams (along with the Chargers and Dolphins) to have a rating of +3.0, meaning they are expected to be three points better than the average team on a neutral field. The Eagles have a +5.0 rating; the 49ers are given a +3.6.

FPI also grades the offense, defense, and special teams. Dallas’s offense calculates to be +1.7, the defense is +1.3, and special teams registers 0.0, equal to the hypothetical average. The Cowboys are one of just five NFL teams not to have a negative number in any one of the three phases (Buffalo, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Baltimore are the others).

Strength of schedule: 10th-toughest

Jan 22, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Dallas Cowboys defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence (90) tackles San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) during the first quarter of a NFC divisional round game at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Using last year’s win-loss totals as a way to measure this year’s opponents is flawed methodology. By using FPI, a far more accurate gauge can be applied to see who really has a tougher road throughout the upcoming regular season.

Dallas is slated to play the 10th-toughest schedule in the league in 2023, just barely behind the Giants (8th) and Commanders (9th). The Eagles’ schedule is 12th-toughest. AFC teams hold the top seven spots on this list.

The Cowboys will play just five games against squads (Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks, and Commanders- twice) that appear in the bottom half of the initial overall FPI rankings. Meanwhile, seven of their 17 matchups are against top-10 teams.

Super Bowl win chances: 7%

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 18: Micah Parsons #11 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates after sacking Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first quarter of the game at TIAA Bank Field on December 18, 2022 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)

Just because a team is expected to better than the average doesn’t necessarily give them a leg up on hosting the Lombardi Trophy. The Chiefs lead the overall FPI rankings, but they have to run more of a gauntlet in the AFC to get there than, say, the Eagles. That’s why Philadelphia has the best chances of winning Super Bowl LVIII. But their 14% chances are the second-lowest for a favorite since 2015, suggesting it will be a wide-open horserace.

The Cowboys are in sixth place leaguewide with a 7% chance of winning it all, again coming in third among NFC teams. Along with the Eagles and 49ers (11%), they are the only clubs from the conference above 5% here.

Current FPI projections give Dallas a 65.1% chance of making the postseason, a 29.4% chance of winning the NFC East, a 42.4% chance of making the divisional round of the postseason, a 23.4% chance of making the NFC title game, and a 13% chance of earning a Super Bowl berth.

Story originally appeared on Cowboys Wire