ESPN 2021 NFL season simulation ends in Bills Super Bowl win

·2 min read

ESPN uses their Football Power Index to help create some details on the upcoming season year. The FPI uses 20,000 simulations to find particular results, such as a team’s chances at winning the Super Bowl.

But for the heck of it, the world-wide leader does have a little fun with it. ESPN Analytics picked one of the 20K sims, the 13,330th, and broke it down individually.

The results were pretty favorable for the Buffalo Bills.

Not only does quarterback Josh Allen win the NFL’s MVP Award, the Bills win the Super Bowl.

We’ll take that.

After topping the Cleveland Browns in the AFC Championship, the Bills go on to beat the Green Bay Packers in the final game of the year.

Here’s part of look back at this simulation:

Buffalo lost a crazy 45-42 game to the Patriots in Week 13 (Patriots QB Mac Jones’ future is bright!) and then never lost again. In the Super Bowl, Allen opened the game with a touchdown to receiver Stefon Diggs, and running back Devin Singletary ran for two more scores. Cornerback Tre’Davious White jumped an interception with four minutes left in the fourth quarter to seal the deal. Final score: 27-17.

But the most important stat of all? Buffalo-area grocery stores sold out of every folding table in stock, as fans descended on the Orchard Park parking lot the night of the victory, even in the dead of Western New York winter.

Will the Bills win it all in real life? Well, we can’t guarantee that. According to our 20,000 FPI simulations, they have a 9.4% chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy, the third-best odds in the NFL behind the Chiefs (19.2%) and Buccaneers (14.1%). But no matter what, Buffalo will always have Simulation No. 13,330.

In addition to losing to the Patriots in ESPN’s sim, Buffalo actually stumbles out of the gate a bit. Only the Kansas City Chiefs and Indianapolis Colts start the season 5-0.

The Bills, on the other hand, begin 3-2.

But nobody circles the wagons like… you know.

Evidently, at some point, the Bills catch fire and carry that all the way to their first (simulated) title.

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