EPL Overlays for Sunday, August 29

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There may only be three EPL matches taking place on Sunday, however there are still opportunities to be had from a wagering standpoint.

Below you’ll find a wager from the Sunday slate available at PointsBet that currently offers an overlaid price.

For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay”, it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.

For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.

If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.


Just because a bettor would need to lay $130 to win $100 doesn’t mean an offering represents an underlay; it has everything to do with the probability of an event happening in relation to the price being offered.

In this case, Manchester United came flying out of the gates to start their EPL campaign, hanging a crooked number on the board against Leeds in the first week of the season.

Last week’s 1-1 draw at Southampton was certainly disappointing, however it must be said – United couldn’t have played much worse in the backfield and they failed to convert on a fair number of scoring chances in the second half.

On the flipside, Wolverhampton Wanderers have played stingy defense in each of their first two matches to start the campaign, yet their inability to score goals often leaves them hoping to secure a lone point rather than come away with all three in any given contest.

Dating back to last season, Wolves have scored just one goal in their last five Premier League matches, emphasizing just how difficult it’s been for the side to find the back of the net.

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Taking all of this into consideration, my model is suggesting a result in the 1-0 / 2-0 range in favor of Manchester United.

With Manchester United’s current win odds listed at -130 (implied probability of 56.5%) but their actual chances of winning being closer to 75% (odds of -300), siding with the Red Devils on the road is a no-brainer.

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