EPL Matchday Three Best Side Bets

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A week after going 0-2 in our best side bets, we recovered nicely in Matchday Two.

Aston Villa cruised to a 2-0 home victory over Newcastle United, and Manchester City obliterated Norwich City 5-0, cashing a -2.5 goal spread easily for us.

Now, we turn our attention to our Matchday Three best side bets. Headlining the weekend card are Liverpool vs. Chelsea at Anfield and Manchester City vs. Arsenal at the Etihad.

So without further ado, here are my two best side bets across the entire Matchday Three slate. All odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Best Bet #1 - PARLAY: Manchester City/Tottenham ML Parlay (-142)

Since their quest for world dominance began in the 2017-18 Premier League season, Manchester City have had the Gunners’ number.

The Cityzens have won eight straight matches against Arsenal in Premier League fixtures and haven’t lost a home match against Arsenal since January 2015.

Some may view it as a risk to fade an Arsenal side that is desperate for a win, but their offensive metrics tell me they’re incapable of keeping up with City.

Arsenal have managed zero goals on 1.68 xGF in their first two matches, and totaled zero goals on 1.31 xGF against Manchester City last season. During those two matches, Arsenal never surpassed 1.0 xGF in either match.

Remember too that Raheem Sterling and Riyad Mahrez got a brief reprieve against Norwich City. The pair came on as late subs and should be primed for starts against an Arsenal backline that gave Chelsea’s wingers and wingbacks a plethora of space to operate.

Then there’s Tottenham, who picked up all three points last weekend in a 1-0 victory at Wolves. They return home to battle Watford, who look like a prime relegation candidate through two matches.

Despite posting a 1-1 draw against Watford in their last meeting at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Spurs have won all the previous five fixtures at home.

Plus, if you believe Watford ultimately get relegated, there’s another positive metric worth considering. Across the last four seasons, Spurs are 8-4-0 at home against those teams that ultimately get relegated.

From a Watford perspective, they’ve looked flawed offensively and now face a strong Spurs defense that Nuno Espirito Santo has clicking. The Hornets, despite registering three goals in their opening match, have combined for 1.42 xGF through two matches.

Time will tell whether Spurs can win this match by two-plus goals -- their goal-line is set at -1 (-150) -- but I have faith they’ll win three more points on Sunday.

Best Bet #2 - West Ham Goal-Line (-1) vs. Crystal Palace (+105)

Across the last three seasons, Palace have been abysmal against top-eight opposition away from Selhurst Park.

In that timeframe, they’ve amassed five wins against such opposition -- three of which came against Manchester United -- and have seen their road loss total increase in each of the last three seasons.

West Ham will arrive into their second consecutive match at the London Stadium as both the more rested side and more impressive side.

Palace face a midweek EFL Cup fixture against Watford three days after a 0-0 home result against Brentford. Even if manager Patrick Viera opts to rest key players for that midweek fixture, I still believe there are worrying metrics with Palace.

From my perspective, they’ve generated one, maybe two real scoring chances in two matches. On the road against Chelsea, they managed a mere 0.35 expected goals. Finally, they’ve lost both matches according to the expected goals tally.

As for West Ham's point of view, this sets up as a great spot for them to win another three points.

Sure, they’ve outperformed their expected goals for stats so far this season -- eight goals on 5.63 xGF -- but the Hammers have been superb at home against bottom-half opposition.

Across the last three seasons, manager David Moyes is 18-6-5 against bottom-half opposition at home, including a 7-2-1 mark last season.

Plus, when West Ham play back-to-back matches at home and win the first, they’re valuable in the second match. In the last five such occurrences, the Hammers have won three of the last five.

The only two losses in that stat came against Everton and Manchester United, two matches in which West Ham wouldn’t necessarily be expected to win.

On the heels of a 4-1 thumping of Leicester (after going up a man), I trust a rested offense will sustain their goal production against a weary Palace defense.

I’m slightly surprised you’re getting this spread at plus-money, so I’m willing to take a shot they win by two or more to cash. So long as this price stays below -110, I believe there’s value on which to capitalize.

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