English Premier League betting preview: Southampton's odds to beat Man City are astronomical

Welcome back to our weekly English Premier League betting preview. Week 5 begins after the continental tournaments kicked off this week. The top teams played in the Champions League on Tuesday and Wednesday while a few other teams play on Thursday in their European contests. Those mid-week games could affect squad choices for the weekend, especially for the teams that play on Thursday.

Here's what you need to know to bet on this weekend's games. All games listed below are on Saturday unless noted and all odds are via BetMGM.

Newcastle vs. Leeds (Friday)

  • Newcastle (+210)

  • Leeds (+125)

  • Tie (+250)

Leeds was picked apart by Liverpool a weekend ago while Newcastle was the unlucky opponent for Manchester United in Cristiano Ronaldo’s first game back in the Premier League. Newcastle gets an odds boost here with the game being at home, but we’re inclined to go with Leeds to get back on track.

Wolves vs. Brentford

  • Wolves (-105)

  • Brentford (+340)

  • Tie (+220)

Brentford lost at home to Brighton and Wolves took care of Watford on the road. Brentford has gotten just two points since beating Arsenal to start the season while that win was Wolves’ first points of the season. Wolves should get it done here again and jump ahead Brentford in the standings.

Burnley vs. Arsenal

  • Burnley (+290)

  • Arsenal (+100)

  • Tie (+240)

Arsenal beat Norwich and finally moved out of the basement while Burnley lost at Everton. We’re not trying to be anti-Arsenal here, but a home game like this feels like the perfect setup for Burnley to knock Arsenal around and get all three points. We’re going with the upset even though Burnley currently sits in the relegation zone.

Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace

  • Liverpool (-450)

  • Crystal Palace (+1250)

  • Tie (+550)

Palace had the biggest upset of the weekend with a 3-0 win over Tottenham that few people saw coming. We’ve got doubts that Palace can pull off another upset this weekend. Go with Liverpool.

Manchester City vs. Southampton

  • Man City (-700)

  • Southampton (+1850)

  • Tie (+725)

No, these odds are not a typo. Southampton is nearly +2000 to win. Manchester City knocked six goals past RB Leipzig on Wednesday in the Champions League and should keep on scoring against the Saints. Over 3.5 goals is only -105. We’re taking Man City despite the lack of a payoff.

Norwich City vs. Watford

  • Norwich (+115)

  • Watford (+240)

  • Tie (+240)

Norwich is the only team in the Premier League without a point. Not a great place to be. The Canaries have a goal difference of -10 through four games, though eight of those goals came against Man City and Liverpool. That may read like we’re getting ready to pick Norwich but we’re going with the tie.

Aston Villa vs. Everton

  • Villa (+135)

  • Everton (+200)

  • Tie (+240)

If you’re a fan of expected goals (or xG) then you likely know that Villa had more expected goals than Chelsea despite losing 3-0 in Saturday. Everton, meanwhile, beat Burnley on Monday. This is another game where we like the tie — Everton is an underdog despite being tied atop the table with 10 points.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Leicester City (Sunday)

  • Brighton & Hove (+175)

  • Leicester (+165)

  • Tie (+220)

Brighton sits sixth in the standings and is only behind Manchester City via goal difference. Quite the sentence. Brighton has the better odds here because Leicester plays Napoli on Thursday in the Europa League and then has a quick turnaround to Sunday. We’re tempted to go with another tie here because we can't make a decent case for either team to win.

West Ham vs. Manchester United (Sunday)

  • West Ham (+325)

  • Man United (-125)

  • Tie (+280)

United was stunned by Swiss side Young Boys in the Champions League on Tuesday while West Ham takes on Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League on Thursday. West Ham striker Michail Antonio will miss Sunday’s game after a red card against Southampton. That’s a big reason why United’s odds are so low. Go with the Red Devils.

Tottenham vs. Chelsea (Sunday)

  • Tottenham (+340)

  • Chelsea (-125)

  • Tie (+270)

Tottenham dropped its first points of the season against Palace while Chelsea is one of four teams at the top with 10 points. Tottenham has to travel to Rennes on Thursday for a Europa Conference League game — yes, that’s a new third-tier tournament — while Chelsea got its Champions League fixture out of the way on Tuesday. Chelsea has much more depth, so we’re going with the Blues.