Thu. 10/11, 8:20 p.m. ET
Three things you need to know before betting on Eagles-Giants:
1. A pair of NFC East rivals with sub-.500 records meet when the defending Super Bowl champions travel to East Rutherford, N.J., on Thursday night. Both teams are coming off two-point losses in Week 5, with the Eagles falling at home to the Vikings, and the Giants losing on the road on a 63-yard field goal by Carolina’s Graham Gano on the game’s final play. While Philadelphia has gone 18-6 straight up since the start of last season, including the postseason, New York is 4-17 with nine double-digit losses. In 10 games in which the point spread has been less than four points during this timeframe, the Giants have only one ATS win, which was a two-point loss as a 2.5-point underdog at Tampa Bay last October.
2. The Eagles have dominated this head-to-head series in recent years, beating the Giants outright in seven of eight meetings while going 5-3 against the spread since the start of the 2014 season. Philadelphia has won six of these games by five or more points, including all three of the games it has won in MetLife Stadium. That improved the Eagles’ record to 9-2 straight up and 8-3 against the spread over their last 11 road games versus the Giants. Philadelphia isn’t the only team that’s enjoyed success at MetLife. The Giants come into this game having gone just 2-8 straight up and 3-7 against the spread over their past 10 home games. That includes an 0-2 mark at home this season (both straight up and against the spread), as New York has been outscored by a combined 53 to 33 while allowing an average of 153 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry in losses to Jacksonville and New Orleans.
3. The disparity in these teams' proficiency in both rushing the football and stopping the run has been significant. Philadelphia has rushed for an average of 111 yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry this season, compared to New York's meager 76 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry. The statistical gap is even wider on the other side of the ball, as the Eagles have limited opponents to 66 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry while the Giants have allowed an average of 124 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. If you’re looking for a betting system that applies to this one, consider that home teams coming off back-to-back games in which they allowed more than 24 points are 18-43-2 when facing an opponent coming off a loss by fewer than seven points.
Pick: Philadelphia -3
Confidence Level: High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)