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When the oddsmakers set the outright win lines so well, the ripple effect often means there are not a lot of value to be found among the top-three, -five, or -10 lines either. But if one looks hard enough, safer bets with less of a payout might be one way to replenish the kitty.
At +725, Kevin Harvick deserves a modest bet for the outright win. Bettors should place a slightly more aggressive wager on his odds of finishing in the top three. While he will only double your stake at +200, he has been perfect in regard to top-fives in his last four attempts and needs just a little more luck or speed to gain a position in the closing laps. There are several more bets listed below that feature Harvick.
Likewise Chase Elliott’s outright odds of +900 drag his top-three odds to +210. The return is not as high as one might prefer, but Elliott has failed to crack the top five only once when there have not been extenuating circumstances. Elliott, Harvick, and Kyle Busch are all even money to earn a top-five.
At +1800 for the outright win, Alex Bowman triggers a cascade. His odds for a top-three are a healthy +450 and he can be had for +215 to finish in the top five. If you are going to place a bet of a unit on the outright win, it should be supplemented with a slightly more aggressive bet to finish in the top three and five.
There aren’t a lot of surprise top-10 finishers at Dover, but dark horses have been so prevalent this season that it pays to keep making steady wagers. Last year Aric Almirola, Austin Dillon, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. each scored a top-10 in one of the two races of the Dover Doubleheader. Matt DiBenedetto and Kurt Busch had a top-10 in 2019.
This week, each of those drivers have positive odds to earn a top-10 with Dillon, DiBenedetto, and Busch listed at +185. Given his horrendous luck in the first dozen races, Almirola drops to +275. Stenhouse has the longest odds from this group at +450.
Chris Buescher and Ryan Newman earned top-10s last week at Darlington. The concrete high banks of Dover have some similarity to that track, so Buescher at +400 and Newman at +450 for a top-10 make for an interesting wager this week.
Cole Custer has been one of our top picks for a top-10 all week. He remains at +450 for that mark.
If you like Truex and Larson as the favorites, that opens up an opportunity in PointsBet Sportsbooks’ group matches. Harvick needs only to beat Elliott, Joey Logano, and William Byron to take Group B and that will be worth +180.
Harvick can also be wagered at +155 to be the top Ford driver. He is listed in a head-to-head matchup further down the page with a +110 against Denny Hamlin’s -140.
On the strength of Truex, Toyota is favored among manufacturers at +150. Chevrolet and Larson are next at +160 with Ford a relatively distant +225.
Joe Gibbs Racing is the favored team this week at +150 over Hendrick Motorsports’ +200. Team Penske is listed third at +450. A decent longshot from this Prop Bet is Richard Childress Racing. Tyler Reddick and Dillon have had some surprising runs this year and if they pull out the upset win, that is worth +3300.