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Dover International Speedway is a rhythm track. While the course is twice the length of Bristol Motor Speedway, the high banks here act much the same as they do on the little sister. Once a driver finds the groove, he replicates his lap over and over until he comes upon another car to pass.
That’s when the race gets tricky. For its size and speed, Dover is a narrow track and the groove can be unforgiving. Last week at Darlington, the new aero and horsepower package created some interesting situations when drivers got on top of one another. It was easy to make the other car loose by packing air on the left rear of the car.
The same thing should happen at Dover. Drivers have to be very decisive when they first roll up on the competition. They should pounce immediately or risk getting stuck in the slipstream. One false move can cause a spin and on this course, track-blocking accidents are not uncommon. Just hope your roster is clear of the incidents.
Group A: Most Expensive (>=$10,000)
Martin Truex Jr. ($11,900)
Truex has to be highlighted because there is a strong likelihood that he is going to challenge for the win. Dover is the site of his first victory and he’s always enjoyed coming here since it is close to his native New Jersey. He has one win and three second-place finishes in his last four starts and it seems almost certain that he will finish in the top three. Unfortunately, he is so expensive that simply putting him on your roster reduces the amount you can spend on the remaining five drivers to $7,620 – and there simply aren’t many good values below that mark.
Chase Elliott ($10,700)
It seems that all Elliott needs to earn a top-five on this track is to stay out of trouble. With the exception of one 12th-place finish, he has been perfectly inside the top five unless he’s blown an engine or been involved in a crash. Still, his top-five percentage of .700 puts him head and shoulders above the competition.
Group B: (Between $9,900 and $8,000)
Kevin Harvick ($9,800)
Harvick is a sleeping giant. He remains one of the top three drivers from last year without a win in 2021. No one believes that will continue for long. We are still waiting for the floodgates to open on Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin. Once that happens, it is likely they will dominate the middle of the schedule along with Truex, who already has three wins and the most bonus points. For the moment, however, Harvick’s salary cap has not caught up to his potential and that is great news for DFS players.
Alex Bowman ($9,200)
With odds of +2000 at PointsBet Sportsbook, Bowman is a better betting value than he is in the DFS game, but he is cheap enough to make him attractive nonetheless. Three of his last four Dover attempts have ended in the top five. He’s finished that well in two of his last six paved oval races and should be able to score a top-10 this week at the very least.
Group C: (Between $7,900 and $6,500)
Chris Buescher ($6,600)
There have been a lot of surprise top-10 finishers this year. On another rough-surfaced track of Darlington last week, Buescher earned his second consecutive top-10. He was ninth in the Goodyear 400 and eighth in the Buschy McBusch 400. With some luck, he can make it three in a row. If he misses that mark, he is still likely to finish in the mid-teens because he was 16th and 14th in last year’s Dover Doubleheader.
Tyler Reddick ($7,600)
The cap managers are catching up to Reddick’s potential. Last week he was available for $7,400. This week he is a little more expensive, but still a good place to start if you build your roster from the ground up. He failed to earn a third consecutive top-10 last week at Darlington, but not by much. His 12th-place finish earned the 15th-most points of 34.5 while he was the 19th-most expensive driver in the game. He has outperformed his cap in four of his last five starts. That trend should continue one more week.
Group D: (Less than or equal to $6,500)
Chase Briscoe ($6,100)
Last year Cole Custer finished 11th and 10th in similar equipment. This week, teammate Briscoe should be able to access Stewart-Haas Racing’s notebooks and finish somewhere on the cusp of 20th. That is where he has been for the last four races of 2021 with a 22nd at Richmond Raceway, an 11th at Talladega Superspeedway, a 20th at Kansas, and last week’s 11th-place finish on the Track Too Tough to Tame. With a little luck, Briscoe could contend for his first top-10 of the season.
Daniel Suarez ($6,300)
Suarez was a huge surprise a few weeks ago on the Bristol Motor Speedway Dirt Track. He challenged for the win on those high banks and while the pavement is going to make a lot of difference because it encourages higher horsepower that comes with a huge cash infusion, this is still a driver’s track. Suarez has an affinity for it and his first four attempts landed in the top 10. His next two were top-15s. That is unlikely this week, but he should be able to crack the top 20.
The top-10 points’ earners from last year’s doubleheader were: Kevin Harvick (54.5 on Sat.) and (171.25 on Sun.), Martin Truex Jr. (81.5 on Sat.) and (64 on Sun.), Kyle Busch (72.25 on Sat.) and (41 on Sun.), Denny Hamlin (106.25 on Sat.), Austin Dillon (68.75 on Sat.), Chase Elliott (62.25 on Sat.), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (50.75 on Sat.), Cole Custer (44.5 on Sat.), Clint Bowyer (40 on Sat.), Brad Keselowski (39.25 on Sat.), Jimmie Johnson (67.75 on Sun.), William Byron (62 on Sun.), Alex Bowman (61.5 on Sun.), Joey Logano (59.25 on Sun.), Aric Almirola (52 on Sun.), Kurt Busch (46 on Sun.), and Ryan Blaney (40.75 on Sun.)
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