Dinsick explains why he's betting Jags to win SB
Jay Croucher, Vaughn Dalzell and Drew Dinsick reveal their favorite NFL futures bets in the wake of the schedule release, highlighted by Dinsick taking the Jaguars to win the Super Bowl.
JAY CROUCHER: We're going to close out with our favorite futures bet in the NFL. Vaughn, we'll start with you. What's your bet?
VAUGHN DALZELL: Well, I've got to say, Jay, you kind of touched on an angle that kind of hits me for mine, too, because you said how Justin Herbert and the Chargers lost last season. They came out, and they want to make this year a lot better. A guy that had to watch his former team win a Super Bowl was Tyreek Hill.
In 2021, with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill recorded career highs in receptions and targets, 111 and 159. In 2022, he reset those highs with Tua and other quarterbacks, 119 receptions, 170 targets, over 1,700 yards. A record 77 first downs for him. And back-to-back full seasons. And he was banged up, still playing.
So I'm looking at Tyreek Hill for Offensive Player of the Year at 20 to 1. I think there's a lot of value there. I think you look at Miami's schedule, how I said they don't have to travel very far for a lot of their games, that's going to help with the health of a lot of these players. As long as Tua is healthy, Tyreek Hill should take that next step forward. And he gets the ball in various ways too. Obviously, he had carries last year, scored a rushing touchdown.
But when I looked at this market, we had Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Christian McCaffrey all ahead of him in terms of odds. And I kind of feel like Tyreek Hill has just as much value, if not better value, than those guys. So the fastest player in the league, and arguably the most dynamic player in the league, on a high-flying offense, behind a young genius of a head coach, in my opinion. I'll take Tyreek Hill to finally get the award that he may have already-- he should have probably won once or twice in the past.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah, I think Tyreek is the best wide receiver in the league. I think he's arguably the most valuable non-quarterback in the league as well. And I think that he probably would have won last year if he and Tua stayed healthy the whole season. Tyreek was dealing with an ankle late, and his numbers tailed off a little bit. But yeah, I don't mind the look on Tyreek.
My best bet is also in this market, a bit of a longer shot. It's Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Player of the Year. Not rookie. Just Offensive Player of the Year. I bet 60 to 1 on this. It's 30 to 1 on MGM. I still think you can get 45 to 1, that type of price. And just betting on upside here. Bijan is the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson, maybe Saquon Barkley if you want to make that argument. But whichever way you slice it, he's one of the three best running back prospects to come out of the draft in the past 20 years.
Obviously, he is off the charts in terms of his talent, and now he goes to literally the best spot in the NFL that he could have landed in terms of just putting up stats. And what I think with this award, this is just a production and statistical award. You go back and you just look at the winners in recent years, and they're all basically just the number one fantasy guy at their position. So Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, who was right there to win it, the leading running back. Michael Thomas, wide receiver.
And so Bijan right now in standard scoring fantasy, he's projected as the third-best running back in the NFL, third-best skill position player total. So I just think that Bijan, he is at a steeper price because he's a rookie. But I just don't think that is going to sink him in this.
Because I think back to Micah Parsons, and Parsons would have won Defensive Player of the Year if Baker Mayfield didn't fall over four times for TJ Watt to tackle him. And there was a situation where Parsons had DROY locked up seven weeks into the season, and then it was just kind of-- then he moved on to the next award. And I think there's a similar thing that could happen with Bijan.
Tyler Allgeier averaged 4.9 yards per carry in Atlanta. They've got an amazing run-blocking line. I think the team will be good enough as well, to your point, Drew, that they can win the division. They can make the playoffs. And if he wins the rushing title, and they make the playoffs, or it gets pretty close to 2,000 rushing yards, either way, I think that he can win this award. But what's your bet, Drew?
DREW DINSICK: I'm going to go as weird as it gets. I love you guys' breakdowns, by the way. And it sounds like we're kind of rowing the boat in the same direction on a lot of teams, which is always a good sign. Because we didn't really plan this. We were just sort of, hey, what do you think? And yeah, it's good that we already have a little consensus. I'm going to go with a team we haven't talked much about but I think is mispriced in the Super Bowl market. I know.
JAY CROUCHER: Wow.
DREW DINSICK: You'd say, how is that possible? Well, somehow, some way, I think the Jacksonville Jaguars are being overlooked at 30 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. And you might say, you mean the team that needed to come back from, what, a 27-point deficit in their one home playoff game last year can all of a sudden make the leap to Super Bowl winner? Maybe.
But even more important, they are in the weakest division in the AFC by a margin. They could potentially play a mix of Gardner Minshew and rookie quarterbacks in division and compile a 6 and 0 record. The rest of their schedule, I think, breaks very, very favorably. They get KC at home, where they'll probably be a small dog.
Their one kind of difficult road game, at Buffalo, that got flipped in their favor, thanks to the schedule. Because Buffalo now has to travel to London, give up that home game. And it will be a game that the Jaguars will already have been acclimated, having played in London the week prior against the Falcons. So a huge swing in terms of win equity in that game alone with the schedule the way it broke.
And as I look down the card, I see them being meaningful favorites in 12 out of 17 games. And then the rest of them, we're looking at pick 'em. The only road game where I can see them potentially being a dog of 2 and 1/2, 3 points might be at the Browns late in the season, with the cold weather and if the Browns ultimately reach their potential. So yeah, I think the Jaguars are alive to get the one seed, guys.
And if they have a bye, and they only got to play one of the likes of the Chiefs or the Bills in the playoffs, I think the likelihood of them getting to the Super Bowl and potentially exercising a victory here is real. So they're 28 to 1 right now on BetMGM. I think that only gets shorter between now and when we get to the playoffs, and I put a decent amount of that in my pocket.