DFS Value Finder: Week 9

Kyle Dvorchak
·6 min read

This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’m taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.

Justin Herbert vs. Raiders -- QB6 (Fanduel, QB7, $7,900)

There are three games on the main slate that have a total of at least 52 points and players from all three contests are in this piece. It starts with Herbert, who is the seventh-highest priced QB on Fanduel. Our Expert Rankers have him slightly higher than that and his 25.33 Fanduel points per game are also better than his salary indicates. Herbert is currently eighth in adjusted yards per attempt (8.3) and sixth in touchdown rate (6.6 percent). He's also adding 4.7 carries for 23.7 yards on the ground. Herbert is the best value of the expensive passers in shootouts this week.

Russell Wilson vs. Bills -- QB2 (DraftKings, QB3, $7,600)

Wilson and Patrick Mahomes both deserve consideration as the QB1 on this slate but Wilson is priced two spots below that on DraftKings. He's also leading the league in touchdown rate (10.1 percent) and is third yards per game (307.3). His opponent also projects to keep his game closer than Mahomes' opponent. The Seahawks are only favored by a field goal while the Chiefs are favored by 10.5 points. Wilson is the quarterback worth paying up for because of his slightly reduced price and better game environment.

Lamar Jackson vs. Colts -- QB7 (Yahoo, QB10, $31)

Jackson has been underperforming expectations this year but his ceiling remains unchanged. He has been a top-five QB on the entire week three times and has over 50 rushing yards in five contests. He's throwing 20 or more yards downfield on 13.7 percent of his attempts and has an average depth of target of 9.3 yards. That mark is third among quarterbacks with 100 pass attempts. Jackson has all of the hallmarks of a high-upside passer but his recent underperformances have both his price and popularity on a downturn.

Chase Edmonds vs. Dolphins -- RB5 (Fanduel, RB11, $6,700)

Edmonds will draw the start versus Miami this week while Kenyan Drake nurses an ankle injury. The Cardinals do not have a running back outside of Edmonds with a carry or target on the year. Backups D.J. Foster and Jonathan Ward have combined for three offensive snaps. Eno Benjamin has been inactive in every week. All of this points to a game where Edmonds dominates the Arizona backfield. His team is favored, at home, and owns a 27-point implied team total.

Justin Jackson vs. Raiders -- RB16 (DraftKings, RB23, $4,900)

In the games Austin Ekeler (knee, injured reserve) has been absent, Jackson leads the Chargers with 37 carries and 17 targets out of the backfield. He has two games of 20 touches while backup Joshua Kelley has no such games. Kelley even ceded work to Troymaine Pope last week. Jackson projects to be the leading runner for a Chargers team that is eighth in percentage of plays that are runs. He's facing a Raiders Defense that is allowing 29.8 DraftKings points per game, sixth-most in the league.

James Conner vs. Cowboys -- RB5 (Fanduel, RB9, $26)

After a quiet Week 1 that included an early exit due to an injury, Conner has operated as a workhorse back in every subsequent game. He's averaging 20 touches per game and has three games over 100 rushing yards. He faces the Cowboys Defense this week. No defense has allowed more rushing yards this year than Dallas. The Steelers are favored by a whopping two touchdowns. The total is strikingly low in this game but that masks Pittsburgh's impressive 28-point implied team total. Conner's rushing role gives him a large share of those points.

Robby Anderson vs. Chiefs -- WR13 (Fanduel, WR13, $6,600)

Anderson has been operating as the clear No. 1 receiver for Carolina this year and his market share numbers reveal one of the most-used receivers in the league. His 38 percent air yards share and 27 percent target share combine for a .67 WOPR (a weighted measure of both), eighth among all wide receivers. Hayden Wink's Usage Model has him as a rebound candidate after three consecutive games under 80 yards. His team is going to be playing from behind for much of their game which should keep him involved until the final whistle. Keep going back to Anderson as long as he's getting the volume of a WR1.

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Tyler Lockett vs. Bills -- WR4 (DraftKings, WR9, $6,800)

DK Metcalf has been the go-to receiver for Seattle lately but Lockett's price is simply egregious. He still leads the Seahawks in targets and receptions. His ceiling is no different than Metcalf's. Lockett has two games of at least 40 DraftKings points this year. He's one of 34 players in the history of the NFL with two games of three receiving touchdowns in a season and he's only at the halfway point.

Terry McLaurin vs. Giants -- WR11 (Yahoo, WR16, $22)

McLaurin could be the one bright spot in an otherwise bland game. Back to the Usage Model, McLaurin should be producing as the WR8 based on his volume. He has four games over ten targets and hasn't dipped below seven targets at any point this season. He's currently the WR33. The poor quarterback play in Washington should lower our expectations of McLaurin but not the level that he is currently producing at. He's a buy low in season-long and DFS.

Darren Waller vs. Chargers -- TE2 (Fanduel, TE3, $6,400)

Much like Wilson, Waller is an expensive player at a onesie position but his price is slightly out of line compared to his potential. His 27.6 percent target share is first among tight ends and his 20 percent air yards share is top-10. He's also second among tight ends in red zone targets with 11 looks inside his opponent's 20-yard line. The Chargers are allowing the ninth-most Fanduel points per game to tight ends and this is one of the highest-total games on the slate.

Hunter Henry vs. Raiders -- TE11 (DraftKings, TE7, $4,000)

Henry has seen at least seven targets in every game but one this year and has a top-10 target share. The Chargers are seventh in passing touchdowns per game and sixth in passing yards per game. Despite being heavily involved in one of the best passing attacks in the league, Henry has no games over 50 yards and one touchdown in his previous five contests. His spike-games will come but he's priced as if they are out of his range of outcomes.

T.J. Hockenson vs. Vikings -- TE3 (Yahoo, TE6, $19)

The Lions lost Kenny Golladay to a hip injury last week and it was Hockenson who stepped up as the leading pass-catcher for Detroit. He was targeted 10 times versus the Colts. This week, he gets the Vikings in a game with a 52-point total. The Lions are underdogs to Minnesota this week which keep them from tilting toward a run-heavy approach. Hockenson slots in as a modest value at a position sorely in need of some affordable plays.