DFS Value Finder: Week 8

Kyle Dvorchak
·6 min read

This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’m taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.

Ryan Tannehill vs. Bengals -- QB4 (Fanduel, QB9, $7,500)

Tannehill and the Titans have a 29-point implied team total. That mark is the second-highest on the main slate. Tannehill's hot start to 2020 is playing a major role in that team total. He is top-five in touchdown rate (7.4%) and QBR (83.3) while averaging 22.7 Fanduel points per game. Tannehill has scored four total touchdowns in three games this year and faces Cincinnati this week. The Bengals are 25th in passing yards allowed. Our Expert Rankers have multiple values on the board in the Tennessee/Cincinnati game but Tannehill headlines them.

Russell Wilson vs. 49ers -- QB1 (DraftKings, QB2, $8,700)

Wilson is becoming increasingly expensive on DraftKings but the price hike has been warranted. With Dak Prescott on injured reserve, Wilson leads all active passers with 315 yards and 3.7 touchdowns per game. He's currently on pace to set the NFL record for touchdowns in a single season. Unlike Patrick Mahomes, the most expensive passer on DraftKings, Wilson's opponent may actually keep pace with him. The Seahawks are only favored by a field goal while the Chiefs are favored by 19.5 points.

Joe Burrow vs. Titans -- QB10 (Yahoo, QB16, $27)

Burrow is the next value to be had in the Tennessee/Cincinnati game. His $27 price on Yahoo is particularly egregious. The game has a 52.5-point total and the Titans are favored by a touchdown. Burrow is the perfect quarterback to play as an underdog. The Bengals throw on 66% of their passes when tied or trailing. Because that is the most common game-script for them, Cincinnati is second in pass attempts per game. Burrow is the best value at quarterback on Yahoo per our DFS Projections.

Alvin Kamara vs. Bears -- RB1 (Fanduel, RB3, $9,000)

Kamara profile as a back who would be better deployed on DraftKings because of his receiving role but the $9,000 tag he holds on Fanduel is still a great value. He is the only back averaging over 22 Fanduel points per game and he's smashing that mark with 24.6 points per game. His receptions are devalued in Fanduel's .5 PPR scoring but his pace of 1.2 touchdowns per game more than makes up for that. Kamara should be the highest-priced running back on Fanduel but there are two backs who cost more than him.

Giovani Bernard vs. Titans -- RB7 (DraftKings, RB13, $5,800)

Joe Mixon (foot) will not play on Sunday leaving the entirety of his role to Bernard. Mixon was out last week and Bernard rushed nine times while adding five catches. The Bengals gave one carry and one target to backup runner Samaje Perine. Bernard is a three-down back whenever Mixon is out but his price on DraftKings doesn't reflect that reality.

Jonathan Taylor vs. Lions -- RB6 (Yahoo, RB10, $23)

Taylor is averaging 16 carries per game since the team lost Marlon Mack but his receiving usage has largely been lacking. He was targeted four times in his first three starts combined. In the following two games, Taylor has seven targets for six catches and 72 receiving yards. He ran four fewer routes than passing-catching specialist Nyeim Hines in those games. The Colts are small favorites versus the Lions and Taylor's role as a receiver appears to be expanding.

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Tyler Lockett vs. 49ers -- WR6 (Fanduel, WR9, $7,200)

Fanduel didn't get the chance to price up Lockett after he posted 200 yards and three scores on 15 catches versus the Cardinals. His 45.5-point explosion was the fifth-best fantasy game for a receiver since the year 2000. Lockett leads Seattle with eight red zone targets and 58 total targets. He's the favorite target of the best quarterback in the NFL but Fanduel has him priced as a low-end WR1.

Keenan Allen vs. Broncos -- WR7 (DraftKings, WR14, $6,200)

Allen has been targeted at a blistering rate since Justin Herbert took over for Tyrod Taylor. Throwing out Week 5 when Allen played just two drives before injuring his back, he's averaging 13.3 targets per game with Herbert under center. For reference: Michael Thomas averaged 11.6 targets per game in 2019 and Davante Adams is seeing 14.3 looks per game when healthy this year.

Tyreek Hill vs. Jets -- WR4 (Yahoo, WR6, $27)

Hill has started the 2020 season with a string of surprisingly quiet performances. He hasn't hit 100 receiving yards in a single game and does not have a multi-touchdown game on the books. However. Hill is still seventh in air yards and is running a route on 90% of Mahomes' dropbacks. His 20% target share is a step back from previous years so Hill's value is best utilized in tournaments.

Darren Waller vs. Browns -- TE3 (Fanduel, TE2, $6,800)

The tight end position is a wasteland after the few elite options this week. Waller's pricing is slightly off based on the volume he sees. He's been targeted 55 times this year and has a 27% target share. Those numbers are first and second among tight ends. Waller is the core of the Raiders' passing attack and he faces a weak Cleveland secondary. Only two teams are allowing more passing yards per game than the Browns this year.

Harrison Bryant vs. Raiders -- TE16 (DraftKings, TE20, $3,200)

Austin Hooper (abdomen) is out again this week leaving Harrison Bryant as the presumptive starting tight end for Cleveland. He was targeted five times in Week 5 and ran a route on 56% of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks. Cleveland selected Bryant in the fourth round of the draft this year and he has already supplanted former first-rounder David Njoku as the starting tight end in Hooper's absence. If his role continues to grow, Bryant will be the best cheap tight end on the main slate by a wide margin.

Hunter Henry vs. Broncos -- TE6 (Yahoo, TE10, $16)

Henry is averaging seven targets per game this year and Hayden Wink's usage model has him as a top-15 tight end through seven weeks. Henry is only averaging 7.8 PPR points per game because he has only found the end zone once despite leading the Chargers in targets inside the 10-yard line. Herbert has thrown 12 touchdowns in five starts and Henry has run a route on 79% of his dropbacks. As long as he remains on the field, positive touchdown regression will catch up with Henry sooner rather than later.