DFS Value Finder: Week 7

Kyle Dvorchak
·6 min read



This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’m taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.

Russell Wilson vs. Cardinals -- QB1 (Fanduel, QB3, $8,700)

Note: The Cardinals/Seahawks game has been moved to Sunday night but is still listed on the DraftKings and Fanduel main slate.

Our Expert Rankings are near a consensus on Wilson being the top overall passer on the week. The only dissenting ranker has their top quarterback listed as a value on DraftKings. Wilson has had a breakout performance through six weeks on top of already being considered one of the best passers in the league. He's averaging 330.4 yards per game and has an 11.4% touchdown rate. That touchdown rate would be the highest mark in modern NFL history. His matchup with the Cardinals features a 56-point total. Seattle has a 29.75 implied team total, second only to Green Bay. Keep firing up Wilson until he's the most expensive passer on the board.

Kyler Murray vs. Seahawks -- QB2 (DraftKings, QB4, $7,100)

The other side of the Seahawks/Cardinals game is equally interesting. Murray is eying some records of his own this year. He's averaging 8.5 carries for 61.7 yards and one touchdown per game as a runner. If it holds, his pace of one touchdown per game would be the most for a quarterback in NFL history. As a passer, Murray has needed a shootout to see his full potential unleashed. He averages 245.9 yards and 2.2 touchdowns in games where at least 50 points are scored.

Joe Burrow vs. Browns -- QB14 (Yahoo, QB18, $26)

Burrow's rookie campaign has had its ups and downs but the one constant for him has been volume. Heading into Week 7, Burrow led all quarterbacks in pass attempts at 246 throws. His 26 rush attempts were also top-10 among quarterbacks. Burrow gets the Browns Defense this week and although they have a lot of talent, it hasn't manifested in the team slowing down opposing passers. Cleveland is allowing 271.7 passing yards per game. Burrow is worth a few tournament flyers for the reasonable chance that he is able to take advantage of the Cleveland defense on 40 or more pass attempts.

Kareem Hunt vs. Bengals -- RB4 (Fanduel, RB9, $7,100)

Our DFS Projections have Hunt as a top-three value on Fanduel this week for the same reasons they like Burrow. Cleveland's offensive philosophy revolves around Hunt like the Bengals' does around Burrow. The Browns are running on 49.9% of their plays this year and Nick Chubb remains on injured reserve this week. In two games as the starting back, Hunt is averaging 16.5 carries and 3.5 targets. Only five teams are allowing more rushing yards than Cincinnati this year.

Justin Jackson vs. Jaguars -- RB18 (DraftKings, RB26, $4,900)

In the Chargers’ first game without Austin Ekeler, Jackson was running as the No. 1 back in Los Angeles over Joshua Kelley. In Week 5, versus the Saints, Jackson carried the ball 15 times and was targeted six times. Kelley only saw one look in the passing game and rushed 11 times. Jackson's price on DraftKings is incredibly low compared to his upside as the primary runner on a Chargers team favored by more than a touchdown.

James Robinson vs. Chargers -- RB11 (Yahoo, RB21, $19)

Robinson doesn't get the benefit of playing with a lead but his role in the passing game could make up for that. He's caught at least four passes in every game since Week 2. Despite a slow start as a receiver, his 23 catches and 207 receiving yards are both top-five among running backs. His usage in the red zone is promising as well. He's seen 68.8% of Jacksonville's red zone carries. Robinson has all of the trappings of a three-down back and is priced like the lesser half of a committee on Yahoo.

D.K. Metcalf vs. Cardinals -- WR4 (Fanduel, WR11, $7,300)

The Cardinals/Seahawks matchup remains one to target at the receiver position. Metcalf's price on Fanduel reflects his 25% target share but the air yards show an even larger role. His 50% air yards share leads all wide receivers. Those are also air yards coming from the most-accurate deep passer in the league. Wilson's 63.6% adjusted completion rate on deep attempts is second in the NFL and he's top-10 in deep attempt rate as well.

Tyreek Hill vs. Broncos -- WR8 (DraftKings, WR13, $6,400)

Hill is simply underpriced for his upside on any given slate and he could even draw lowered ownership because of a few down weeks. He scored 5.5 points last week and hasn't hit 22 points in any game this season. His resume says this lull of explosive games will come to an end sooner rather than later. He topped that mark four times in 12 games last year and six more times in 2018. Hill's 580 air yards, top-10 among receivers, indicate his role hasn't changed from previous years. Keep going back to him until he posts a slate-breaking game.

D.J. Moore vs. Saints -- WR20 (Yahoo, WR30, $18)

Moore is operating as the No. 2 receiver in Carolina but that is still a valuable role for fantasy purposes. He's being used to stretch the field frequently. Moore is 11th in targets at 47 and 13th in air yards at 559. The Panthers face New Orleans in a sneaky spot this week. The game has a 51-point total and New Orleans has the No. 27 coverage grade according to Pro Football Focus.

T.J. Hockenson vs. Falcons -- TE5 (Fanduel, TE8, $5,900)

Like most weeks in the middle of this injury-ravaged season, tight end is a wasteland. Hockenson has been one of the bright spots. He's been a fringe TE1 in fantasy points per game and the return of Kenny Golladay does not appear to be impacting his volume. Hockenson is averaging more routes and targets with Golladay on the field. Only the Saints have allowed more Fanduel points per game to tight ends than the Falcons this season.

Hunter Henry vs. Jaguars -- TE4 (DraftKings, TE9, $4,500)

No team has been worse against the pass this year than Jacksonville. The Jaguars Defense is allowing opposing passers to average 8.5 yards per attempt. They're also allowing 270.7 yards per game through the air. Henry is posting seven targets per game and his team has an implied team total of 28.25 points. He's the best value at tight end on DraftKings.

Rob Gronkowski vs. Raiders -- TE7 (Yahoo, T12, $15)

The loss of O.J. Howard has turned Gronkowski into an every-down player. He hasn't dipped below an 80% snap share since Week 2. Gronkowski is also averaging six targets and over 50 yards per game in that span. With Chris Godwin returning to the lineup last week, Gronksowi managed a season-high target count of eight. On a weak slate at the position, Gronkowski should get the job done for $15 on Yahoo.