This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’m taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.
Teddy Bridgewater vs. Falcons -- QB10 (Fanduel, QB15, $7,100)
All of our Expert Rankings refer to players in the context of all active players on the week. The DFS site's ranking only applies to their main slate. That means a difference of a few spots between the ranks will often look even larger when zooming in on the smaller pool of games available for DFS lineups. That's the case with Bridgewater, who our projections and rankers are both particularly keen on this week.
Our projections have him as the best value based on his salary. The matchup versus Atlanta plays a major role in creating that value. The Falcons have allowed 353.4 passing yards and 3.3 scores through the air per game. Bridgewater is completing 73% of his passes and is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He should have no problem keeping up his impressive efficiency metrics versus a nonexistent Atlanta secondary.
Daniel Jones vs. Cowboys -- QB19 (DraftKings, QB21, $5,400)
Jones has been disappointing to start the year but he's also run the gauntlet of difficult defensive matchups. He's played four games, all against top-10 pass rush units according to Pro Football Focus. Now he gets the Cowboys, who are bottom-10 in pass rush and coverage grades as a team. The pace of both teams sets up perfectly for a shootout of epic proportions. No team is playing faster than Dallas at 19.95 seconds per play. The Giants are still among the 10 fastest teams at 25.72 seconds per play. Vegas has the total at a lofty 54-points. This is the ideal environment for Jones to mount a fantasy comeback.
Lamar Jackson vs. Bengals -- QB3 (Yahoo, QB5, 36$)
Jackson is currently dealing with a knee injury but all reports have indicated that he'll be on the field this week. That's good news for DFS players who have action on Yahoo as he's at his cheapest price through five weeks. He's regressed as a passer but is still among the league's best at scoring through the air. His 7.1% touchdown rate is currently inside the top-five passers. As a rusher, Jackson hasn't missed a beat. His floor has been 45 rushing yards and seven carries. The Ravens have an implied team total of 32 points, second only to Kansas City on the entire week. Jackson likely needs a multi-score game for that number to be remotely close to accurate.
Mike Davis vs. Falcons -- RB8 (Fanduel, RB10, $6,800)
Fanduel has been slow to adjust Davis' price after he seamlessly turned into Christian McCaffrey. He's averaging 10 carries and seven targets per game in the three games without or partially without McCaffrey. That includes a Week 2 game that saw him receive one carry because he took the field in the midst of a two-score loss to Tampa Bay. As long as McCaffrey is out, Davis needs to be viewed as one of the league's few three-down backs.
David Johnson vs. Jaguars -- RB13 (DraftKings, RB23, $5,200)
Johnson won’t have the luxury of getting the backfield to himself this week but he’s played two games with Duke Johnson so far. The split hasn’t been an issue. In his games with Duke on the field, David has seen 73% of the Houston backfield carries and 58.3% of the backfield targets. His share of the carries will be particularly useful in Week 5 as the Texans are 5.5-point favorites. A win versus Jacksonville would mark Houston’s first win on the year.
Since returning from a hamstring injury in Week 2, Sanders has operated as the workhorse back for Philadelphia. Sanders has earned 77.3% of the running back carries and 79.2% of the running back targets in the past three weeks. The Eagles are 7.5-point underdogs to Pittsburgh but that could work in Sanders’ favor as he’s been targeted 6.3 times per game. Win or lose (or tie), Sanders underpriced on Yahoo because of his volume.
Tyreek Hill vs. Raiders -- WR1 (Fanduel, WR3, $8,200)
Fanduel’s scoring prioritizes touchdowns over catches and yards compared to DraftKings. Hill, who has a score in every game this year, is still priced as the third overall receiver. Touchdowns are fluky but they become less so when your quarterback is Patrick Mahomes. Hill is averaging 7.3 targets per game. The Chiefs have a 33.5-point total. That's 1.5 more points than an other team on the week. He has multi-score upside versus the Raiders Defense this week.
D.J. Moore vs. Atlanta -- WR13 (DraftKings, WR16, $6,000)
The Falcons/Panthers game continues to turn up value and rightfully so. The game takes place indoors and features a 53.5-point total, fourth among games on the main slate. Stacking it with Bridgewater, Moore, and one extra pass-catcher is cheap and loaded with upside. Moore has seen two fewer targets than Robby Anderson but the air yards ultimately point to Moore as the better play. He accounts for 41.9% of the Carolina air yards this year. Moore is going to hit at some point as long as he’s seeing one of the highest air yards shares in the league.
Will Fuller vs. Jacksonville -- WR15 (Yahoo, WR25, $19)
Fuller dropped a zero-catch game in Week 2 and was spotted getting stretched out by trainers on the sidelines for much of the first half but has rebounded in the following two weeks. He’s scored and topped 50 yards in both games while only running two fewer routes than Brandin Cooks, who leads the team with 69 routes. Week 5 sets up to be his best outing yet as he faces Jacksonville. The Jaguars Defense has allowed 261 passing yards per game, bottom-10 in the league.
Dalton Schultz vs. Giants -- TE10 (Fanduel, TE12, $5,300)
Schultz is averaging eight targets and a 71.3% snap share in three games without Blake Jarwin, who will miss all of 2020 due to an ACL tear. Many of those snaps have come in the slot. He played in the slot on just over a third of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps in his first two starts. That number jumped to 60.3% in Week 4. Schultz is too cheap for a primary player getting extra reps from the slot on the Cowboys Offense.
Evan Engram vs. Cowboys -- TE7 (DraftKings, TE12, $4,600)
The volume has been there for Engram but his quarterback’s early-season struggles have crippled the entire offense. Engram has seen 30 looks in the passing game. That mark is third among all tight ends. He’s only caught 17 of those targets which makes him No. 8 in tight end receptions. His production should fall in line with his usage against a terrible Dallas defense this week.
Darren Waller vs. Chiefs -- TE3 (Yahoo, TE6, $20)
Waller has the softest price of any player at any position on Yahoo. He has 29 catches on 40 targets and a 29.2% target share this year. All of those marks lead all tight ends. This week, the Raiders are two-score underdogs to the Chiefs. That will crank up the passing volume for Las Vegas which means even more targets for Waller. He’s an easy play in cash games and is even hard to get away from in tournaments.