This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’m taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.
Joe Burrow vs. Jaguars -- QB11 (Fanduel, QB13, $7,400)
Bengals coach Zac Taylor has been more than willing to unleash his No. 1 overall pick through three weeks. Burrow and the Bengals have attempted a pass on 69% of their plays. Being winless has only played a small role in getting that rate as high as it is as well. When Cincinnati is within a touchdown of their opponent, they have still passed on 65% of their snaps. Only seven teams have allowed more Fanduel points to opposing passers than Jacksonville this year. Burrow should tee off against their weak secondary.
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Seahawks -- QB13 (DraftKings, QB22, $5,400)
Note: Cam Newton was previously listed here but will not play after testing positive for COVID-19.
Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins play host to the Seahakws this week. Even though that makes them massive udnerdogs, it still putz Fitzpatrick in a great spot to put points on the board. The game has a 54-point total and the Dolphins get the softest secondary through three weeks. No team has allowed more passing yards than Seattle this year (1,319). That has been boosted by a slew of talented passers but Fitzpatrick hasn't been a slouch this year. He's completed 71.1% of his passes and has an 81 QBR. Both marks are top-10 among passers.
Deshaun Watson vs. Vikings -- QB9 (Yahoo, QB12, $30)
Watson has run the gauntlet of difficult defenses. He's faced Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Kansas City this year. Those teams have allowed two top-12 performances to opposing quarterbacks, one of which came from Watson versus the Chiefs in Week 1. This week, Watson gets one of the easiest matchups in the league. The Vikings are graded as the worst overall defense by Pro Football Focus. They have pass rush and coverage grades of 20th or worse. Watson has started the year slow but should have no problem bouncing back versus Minnesota and now comes at a discount.
Kenyan Drake vs. Panthers -- RB9 (Fanduel, RB11, $7,000)
Drake has had a quiet start to the year but his underlying metrics have been impressive. He has seen 81.8% of the running back carries in Arizona and Pro Football Focus has him graded as a top-20 runner among running backs. This week represents the perfect chance for him to make good on his volume and rushing prowess. The Cardinals are favored by 3.5 points versus Carolina. The Panthers have allowed the second-most Fanduel Points to opposing backs this season.
Mike Davis vs. Cardinals -- RB12 (DraftKings, RB19, $5,700)
Davis has done a better impression of Christian McCaffrey than McCaffrey himself through one and a half games as the starter. He has 14 carries and 16 catches over the past two contests. All other Panthers backs have accounted for three carries and one catch over that same span. DraftKings’ full PPR scoring makes Davis one of the five best values on DraftKings this week, per our DFS Player Projections tool.
Johnathan Taylor vs. Bears -- RB6 (Yahoo, RB9, $27)
Taylor has been stifled by game-scripts that have been too favorable. In the two weeks that Taylor has played without Marlon Mack, his team has won by a collective 46 points. The Colts are modest, 2.5-point favorites this week versus the Bears. If that line is even close to accurate, expect a full complement of carries for Taylor with backup Jordan Wilkins seeing few, if any, carries.
D.K. Metcalf vs. Dolphins -- WR8 (Fanduel, WR14, $6,900)
Metcalf and the Seahawks have started the season on a mind-bending tear. No one was been able to stop Wilson from cooking so far. He leads the league in adjusted yards per attempt (11.3) and Quarterback Rating (139). Miami’s porous secondary isn’t going to slow down Wilson’s warpath this week. Metcalf is also $600 cheaper than Tyler Lockett but don't shy away from playing both in lineups with Wilson.
D.J. Moore vs. Cardinals -- WR10 (DraftKings, WR25, $5,600)
A blowup game is coming for Moore. He’s one of just five receivers with a target share north of 25% and an air yards share north of 40%. Three of the other four have topped 25 points at least once this year. Odell Beckham, who himself is a solid bet to improve based on Hayden Wink’s Usage Model, is the only player to meet both criteria and not have a big game. Our Experts have Moore ranked as a WR1 this week while DraftKings doesn't even see him as a WR2 on the main slate. He's the best receiver for cash games by a wide margin.
Allen Robinson vs. Colts -- WR6 (Yahoo, WR14, $23)
Note: Julian Edelman was originally listed here but will not play on the main slate after the NE/KC game was postponed.
The Bears benched Mitchell Trubisky for Nick Foles last week and the move immediately paid dividends for Robinson. He had been targeted 18 times through two weeks but only managed to bring down eight catches. In Week 3, Robinson saw 13 targets, caught eight, and went for 123 yards. He also found the end zone once. Foles isn't a world-beater but he's an improvement under center. The change should help Robinson continue to capitalize on his immense volume this week.
Logan Thomas vs. Ravens -- TE14 (Fanduel, TE15, $4,900)
Thomas has been a low-end TE2 by Fanduel’s scoring but he has the volume of a TE1 and maybe even the TE1. Back to the Usage Model, Thomas trails only one tight end (foreshadowing) in expected fantasy points based on his volume. His 24 targets are second among tight ends. The matchup versus Baltimore isn’t ideal but it should keep Washington throwing for an entire game. The value with Thomas is best leveraged in tournaments because of his quarterback's shortcomings.
Darren Waller vs. Bills -- TE4 (DraftKings, TE6, $5,200)
The $5,200 tag on Waller is simply egregious this week. Even after Bill Belichick schemed him out of Week 3, Waller still owns a 29.8% target share and a 25.2% target share. Those marks are first and fifth among tight ends and make him the most-used tight end in the league. His matchup versus the Bills is less than desirable but it's also better than facing New England. With Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards both out, double-digit targets should be the expectation for Waller this week.
Zach Ertz vs. 49ers -- TE3 (Yahoo, TE7, $17)
Through two games, Dallas Goedert looked like the better Eagles tight end to play in DFS. He led the team in all receiving categories while Ertz trailed far behind. That isn't going to be the case on Sunday as the Eagles will be without three of their top-six receivers on the year. Their absences leave 16.7 targets per game on the table. Greg Ward and John Hightower will contribute in the receiving game but expect Ertz to play a larger role in Week 4 than at any other point this year.