DFS Value Finder: Week 2

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Nick Mensio
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I’m taking over this article from Rich Hribar, who wrote it last season. It’s a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, we’re taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing across the two major DFS sites in hopes of discovering some value. Easy as that.

Josh Jacobs -- RB15 (FanDuel, RB19, $6,500; DraftKings, RB25, $4,700)

Jacobs handled 24 touches and played 73% of the snaps in the Week 1 win over the Broncos last Monday night. Since prices for Week 2 were released Sunday night/Monday morning, DFS sites were unable to adjust since the Raiders had yet to play. And now the whole Oakland offense is far too cheap across the industry headed into a dream Week 2 spot against a Chiefs Defense that was lit up by the Jaguars and faced the second-most plays in 2018. Jacobs is highly unlikely to play with a lead again this week, but coach Jon Gruden said he wants to ride the rookie. He’s a good bet for a floor of 18 touches, making Jacobs way too cheap for his volume upside. Jacobs was inefficient as a runner Week 1, but he did score two touchdowns.

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Matt Breida -- RB21 (FanDuel, RB31, $5,400)

Tevin Coleman is out multiple weeks with a high-ankle sprain, putting Breida back in the driver’s seat in the Niners backfield. He could easily play 65-70% of the snaps, while special teams ace Raheem Mostert and practice squad call-up Jeff Wilson mix in behind him. The Bengals were brutal against running backs a year ago and gave up two touchdowns to Chris Carson last week. Breida is a near-lock to be apart of cash-game lineups on FanDuel. Cincinnati was towards the bottom of the league in opponent plays per game in 2018. This game’s 46-point total is enticing from a fantasy perspective with a number of players on both teams as options.

Adrian Peterson -- RB37 (FanDuel, RB52, $4,800; DraftKings, RB51, $3,400)

Derrius Guice is out for at least eight weeks after being sent to I.R. with a meniscus injury in his non-surgically repaired knee. That puts Peterson, who was a healthy scratch Week 1, in the early-down runner role for the Skins. He’s going to get 15-plus carries, but Peterson brings nothing to the table as a pass-catcher. Chris Thompson is healthy and locked into pass-game work. The Redskins are highly unlikely to be competitive in this one, making Peterson’s actual playing time pretty iffy. He’s going to have to score a touchdown to hit value. Obviously, that is well within Peterson’s range of outcomes. He could easily hang an 18-90-1 line on the ground. But Peterson’s floor is extremely low, especially if he doesn’t find the end zone.

Tyrell Williams -- WR25 (DraftKings, WR41, $4,400)

Like Jacobs above, Williams is part of the Raiders crowd that is priced far too cheap. He’s the WR28 on FanDuel at $5,900, but that’s still reasonable for his target share projection. Williams was second on the Raiders with seven targets last week, drawing 27% of the share. Extremely inconsistent with the Chargers his first years in the league, Williams figures to be able to string better games together in Oakland as the default No. 1 receiver sans Antonio Brown. Derek Carr is a good bet to attempt 35-40 passes after throwing it 26 times a week ago. The Raiders averaged 71 plays in two meetings with the Chiefs last season. This game’s 53.5-point total is the highest of Week 2. The Chiefs are fresh off getting ripped by Jaguars outside speed receivers D.J. Chark and Chris Conley for over 240 yards and two scores.

Terry McLaurin -- WR43 (FanDuel, WR50, $5,300; DraftKings, WR59, $3,800)

McLaurin tied for the Redskins lead in targets in his NFL debut last week against the Eagles, hanging a 5-125-1 line on Philly while roasting CB Rasul Douglas for a 70-yard touchdown. Scary Terry should have had another 73-yard score, but Case Keenum badly missed him downfield. The matchup isn’t great for McLaurin, but the Redskins project to be trailing in this game, and McLaurin has the biggest upside of any Redskins offensive player.

Mecole Hardman -- WR49 (FanDuel, WR70, $4,700)

Hardman is expected to fill the No. 2 receiver role in the wake of Tyreek Hill’s collarbone injury. He played 53-of-59 snaps after Hill’s injury in Jacksonville last week but was targeted just once, dropping the pass. Hardman has 4.33 wheels and tore up the preseason with the Chiefs’ No. 2 offense. All Hardman needs to do is break off one long touchdown to crush value. Coach Andy Reid already seems ready to commit to Hardman, who should have a few plays specifically drawn up for him. The Raiders’ secondary has already been ravaged by injury, losing playmaking tone-setter first-round S Johnathan Abram to a season-ending shoulder injury.

Darren Waller -- TE8 (FanDuel, TE11, $5,400; DraftKings, TE11, $3,300)

Another cheap Raiders weapon makes the list. Waller ended up playing all 55 snaps Week 1 against the Broncos and led the team with eight targets. He turned them into a 7-70 line and looked to be a featured part of the new Antonio Brown-less offense. This offense appears to be extremely narrow with Brown now out of the picture. It’s Tyrell Williams deep and on the outside for big plays or dinking and dunking down the field with Waller and Josh Jacobs. We have a pretty good idea of who is going to be getting the ball most of the time for the Raiders, and it’s one of those three. Ryan Grant and Hunter Renfrow were barely featured Monday night. The Chiefs gave up eight catches to James O’Shaughnessy and Jaguars tight ends last week. There’s also a good chance the Raiders run 10-20 more plays this week than the 55 they fired off a week ago. The Chiefs were 31st in opponent plays per game in 2018, and the Raiders averaged 71 in their two meetings with Kansas City last year.

T.J. Hockenson -- TE10 (DraftKings, TE16, $3,000)

Hockenson is laughably cheap on DK after his Week 1 blow-up in Arizona. Hockenson played over 70% of the offensive snaps in his NFL debut and set a receiving yards record for a tight end playing in his first NFL game. The Lions won’t again run 80 offensive plays, and the matchup isn’t nearly as easy, but Hockenson’s price is just too cheap to ignore. The Chargers eliminated Colts TEs Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle in Week 1, but Ebron did drop a touchdown. Hockenson is better than both of them, but the Detroit offense isn’t all that exciting as a run-first group playing against an also-slow Chargers Offense in terms of pace. The Lions will almost certainly run 15-25 fewer plays this week than they did last Sunday.