DFS Value Finder: Week 17

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Kyle Dvorchak
·6 min read
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This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I normally take our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo. With most fantasy leagues ending last week, those rankings are done for the year. Because of that, we'll simply be relying upon our DFS Projections to find the best values at each position on each site.

Mitchell Trubisky vs. Packers -- FanDuel, QB15, $7,300

Trubisky has three games over 20 FanDuel points and two games over 24 since returning to the starting lineup five weeks ago. Three of those games saw him post a trio of touchdowns and he is throwing the ball better as of late as well. Trubisky has completed 68.1% of his passes and is averaging 7.5 adjusted yards per attempt in his latest stint as the starter. He’s the perfect value play in a shootout with the Packers.

Drew Lock vs. Raiders -- DraftKings, QB32, $5,000

As ugly as it may feel, Lock is shaping up to be a massive value at his basement-level price on DraftKings. The Broncos are one of two underdogs with over a 24-point implied team total this week and play in a game with a 51 overall total. The Broncos pass on 57 of their plays and that number jumps by six percent when they are losing. Lock is one of the cheapest starting quarterbacks in one of the highest total games of the week.

Jalen Hurts vs. Washington -- Yahoo, QB12, $31

Even without some of his weapons in this game, Hurts remains a top-five fantasy quarterback at a low-end QB1 price. In his three NFL starts, he has averaged 12.7 carries for 79.3 to go along with one score. He’s also posting over 280 passing yards and 1.7 scores per game through the air. This is your last chance to buy Hurts at these prices until next season.

Alexander Mattison vs. Lions -- FanDuel, RB48, $5,000

FanDuel will close out their regular season as a provider with one of the softest RB prices of the year. Mattison is expected to draw the start for Minnesota with Dalvin Cook away from the team for personal reasons. Mattison is dealing with a concussion but was upgraded to a full practice on Friday. In his lone start this year, Mattison saw 76.9% of the team's running back carries and half of the backfield targets in a loss to the Falcons. As 7.5-point favorites over an atrocious Lions Defense, Mattison should be able to run wild this week.

Latavius Murray vs. Panthers -- DraftKings, RB24, $5,600

Much like Mattison, Murray is going to be the starter for a prolific offense with their typical lead-back out this week. Murray started two games in 2019. He rushed 48 times for 221 yards while adding seven receptions for another 86 yards in those games. He also found the end zone a total of four times. The results shouldn’t be much different versus the Panthers’ weak run defense.

Myles Gaskin vs. Bills -- Yahoo, RB12, $23

Gaskin looks to be back in his three-down role once again based on his Week 16 stat line. He out-carried Salvon Ahmed 14-6 and went for 87 yards while Ahmed posted just two yards. Gaskin also logged five receptions for 82 yards and two scores while taking a quarter of his snaps lined up as a wide receiver. In a must-win game for the Dolphins, expect him to dominate the backfield work once again.

Robby Anderson vs. Saints -- FanDuel, WR20, $6,600

Despite the reemergence of D.J. Moore in the second half of the season, Anderson is still playing the part of a No. 1 receiver. His 26.6 percent target share is 10th among all players and his 33.7 percent air yards share is 20th in the league. As underdogs of a touchdown without their starting and backup running backs, expect the Panthers to air out it for four quarters to close out the 2020 season. Anderson should be the biggest beneficiary of this approach.

Jerry Jeudy vs. Raiders -- DraftKings, WR44, $4,200

Despite doing little with his opportunities last week, Jeudy dominated the targets for Denver. He saw 15 looks which was good for a 35 percent target share and a 37 percent air yards share. He’s averaging seven targets per game over the past four weeks. If playing Lock, Jeudy remains the top stacking option to pair with him.

Justin Jefferson vs. Lions -- Yahoo, WR7, $30

Jefferson simply shouldn’t be priced below Adam Thielen and Yahoo was the only site to make that mistake on Sunday night when they ran the pricing algorithm. Since entering the starting lineup in Week 3, Jefferson leads the Vikings with a 26.7 percent target share and a 43.9 percent air yards share. Those numbers are 1.6 and 10.7 percent higher than Thielen. An offense with a 30.5 implied team total has an alpha receiver and that player is not Thielen.

George Kittle vs. Seahawks -- FanDuel, TE4, $6,800

Despite playing for nothing, Kittle is going to be going all out on Sunday per usual. He came back to the lineup last week and saw five targets, four of which he converted into 92 yards. That was on just half of the offensive snaps. If that number bumps up near a full game, Kittle will likely be the TE1 for the final week of the regular season.

Donald Parham vs. Chiefs -- DraftKings, TE30, $2,900

Parham played on 81% of the Chargers’ snaps last week and caught two of his three targets for 47 yards. Those stats aren’t eye-popping and his target total trailed fellow backup, Stephen Anderson. However, Parham ran nearly three times as many routes as Anderson and dominated in the XFL before getting a contract with the Chargers. Anderson has been a practice squad player for every NFL team that has employed him.

Hayden Hurst vs. Buccaneers -- Yahoo, TE18, $13

Last week, Hurst was targeted five times and scored once. Coming off a disappointing non-shootout with the Chiefs, the entire Falcons Offense is in a buy-low position this week. Atlanta gets the Bucs in a game with a 50.5-point total that features two teams passing at top-10 rates. Hurst is averaging 5.4 targets per game and is a cheap way to tap into a high-scoring affair.