DFS Value Finder: Week 15

Kyle Dvorchak
·5 min read

This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’m taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.

Ryan Tannehill vs. Lions -- QB6 (FanDuel, QB8, $7,700)

Because there are so many games not on the Sunday main slate and our Expert Rankers list all players main slate or not, small advantages of their rankings versus DFS prices are actually far greater than they initially appear. Tannehill comes in as one of the better values this week specifically because of his team’s implied total. The Titans lead the Week 15 Sunday slate with a 31.25 implied team total. Tannehill also serves as a direct pivot off Derrick Henry, who figures to be very popular this week.

Jalen Hurts vs. Cardinals -- QB11 (DraftKings, QB12, $5,900)

Hurts is simply underpriced based on the rushing production he showed off in his first NFL start. Versus the Saints, he rushed 18 times for 104 yards. That was the fifth-most rush attempts in a game for a quarterback since 2000. This week, he faces a Cardinals Defense that has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing passers. Hurts is the ultimate Konami Code quarterback at a discounted price.

Lamar Jackson vs. Jaguars -- QB3 (Yahoo, QB5, $33)

The Ravens have a 30.5-point implied team total, third-highest on the main slate, and get a Jacksonville defense that is allowing eight yards per pass attempt this year. That mark is last in the league the only mark above 7.7 yards per attempt allowed. The only concern with Jackson is that if his team takes a massive lead, he’ll be done throwing by the third quarter. Jackson has accounted for 63 percent of Baltimore’s scores this year including a game that he didn’t play in. That means if his team gets up big, he’s likely the reason they got there.

J.K. Dobbins vs. Jaguars -- RB15 (FanDuel, RB19, $5,900)

Dobbins looks to have taken over as at least the primary running back for Baltimore. At $5,900 on FanDuel, he can even afford to give up some work and still capitalize on his team’s absurd total. In his previous three games, he’s averaging 13 carries for 64.7 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game this season.

Cam Akers vs. Jets -- RB7 (DraftKings, RB10, $6,600)

Akers has been on a tear in his previous two games. He’s averaging 25 carries for 121.5 yards plus an extra 22.5 receiving yards. His team is a 17.5-point favorite with a 30.75 implied team total. That makes the Rams the second-highest scoring team and the largest favorite of the slate according to Vegas. His red zone role makes him the perfect way to benefit from those aspects of Los Angeles. He has seen 14 of the Rams’ 15 red zone carries over the past two weeks.

Jonathan Taylor vs. Texans -- RB4 (Yahoo, RB6, $29)

Taylor has emerged as a premier fantasy option at running back in his previous three games. He has rushed at least 20 times twice over that span and has no fewer than 114 yards from scrimmage in each of those three matches. He’s more than a touchdown favorite against the Texans at home this week.

Brandon Aiyuk vs. Cowboys -- WR9 (FanDuel, WR16, $6,900)

The 49ers will be without George Kittle and Deebo Samuel in Week 15. Aiyuk has played in five games that neither of those two was able to finish. On those days, he averaged 6.4 receptions for 75.8 yards and .4 touchdowns. That’s on 10.4 targets per game and includes early-season contests that Aiyuk was also returning from an injury during. He’s an obvious bet on volume versus cost.

T.Y. Hilton vs. Texans -- WR17 (DraftKings, WR22, $5,500)

After a dismal start (and middle) to the 2020 season, Hilton has finally come on as a weekly fantasy contributor. He has at least 80 yards and a touchdown in three consecutive games. Hilton has seen five or more targets in every game since Week 10. His price is well short of what his recent production indicates he is capable of.

DK Metcalf vs. Washington -- WR3 (Yahoo, WR7, $29)

Metcalf is the cheapest of the elite receivers on Yahoo based on his $29 price tag. He is one of just ten receivers with a game over 30 Yahoo points this season and his volume has been on the rise in the second half of the season. Since Tyler Lockett’s Week 7 explosion, Metcalf has seen 26 percent of the targets and 42 percent of the air yards in Seattle. He’s both a solid value and a great contrarian play on Yahoo this week.

Cole Kmet vs. Vikings -- TE14 (FanDuel, TE18, $5,100)

Until Week 10, Kmet had never played on even half of his team’s snaps in a game. From Week 10 onward, he has played on no fewer than 70 percent of the Bear’s offensive snaps. That has translated to five targets per game since his first week as a full-time player. No team passes on a higher percentage of their players than Chicago and Kmet is the cheapest way to tap into that immense volume.

Jordan Reed vs. Cowboys -- TE15 (DraftKings, TE16, $3,200)

DraftKings likely has the most accurate tight end pricing so a slight advantage with Reed is the best it gets this week. Reed has played in eight games this year, seven of which have been without Kittle healthy. In those seven games, he’s posted 3.1 receptions for 28.7 yards and .4 scores on 5.3 targets weekly. That’s 9.4 DraftKings points per game. Only six active tight ends on the main slate are out-scoring that mark on the year.

Hayden Hurst vs. Buccaneers -- TE13 (Yahoo, TE16, $12)

Hurst may seem like an ugly play but his near-minimum cost on Yahoo is awfully appealing. His 14.7 percent target share is 16th among tight ends and the Falcons are passing 38.5 times per game, eighth-most in the NFL. If not paying up for Kelce, going all the way down to someone like Hurst is the play this week.