DFS Value Finder: Week 12

Nick Mensio
Rotoworld

This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’m taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing across the two major DFS sites in hopes of discovering some value.

 

Kareem Hunt vs. Dolphins -- RB20 (FanDuel, RB26, $5,600)

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Since returning from suspension, Hunt has played 54.7% of the Browns’ offensive snaps across two games, registering 23 touches. In particular, Hunt has been very involved in the passing game, catching 13 passes on 16 targets. Hunt has nearly eliminated Nick Chubb from the passing game. With the Browns as two-score home favorites, Chubb is in a good spot to handle a massive workload, simultaneously dinging Hunt’s chances of truly popping off in DFS. Hunt is more of a season-long play than FanDuel option. On PPR site DraftKings, Hunt is the RB15 where his pass-game usage is baked into his cost.

 

Odell Beckham vs. Dolphins -- WR6 (FanDuel, WR11, $7,000)

 

OBJ has been a colossal fantasy bust in his first year with the Browns, and his price continues to fall on DFS sites. If there’s any spot for Beckham to bust his slump, this is it at home against a Dolphins Defense that recently sent top CB Xavien Howard (knee) to I.R. and then placed starting safeties Bobby McCain and Reshad Jones on I.R. as well this week. OBJ has drawn 22 targets over the last two weeks. John Brown just smashed this secondary for 9-137-2 last week.

 

D.J. Moore at Saints -- WR11 (FanDuel, WR25, $6,400)

 

Moore is the WR13 on DraftKings. FanDuel seems to be far more out of whack with its pricing compared to recent production. Moore (8-95) and Christian McCaffrey (191 yards) were the only sources of offense for a Panthers team that mustered just three points at home against the Falcons last Sunday. Moore has now drawn at least 10 targets in four of the last five games and eight targets in six straight. He's averaging 105.3 yards over his last three outings, but touchdowns have avoided him with just two on the year and none since Week 6. This isn’t the easiest matchup Moore will see, but the Saints are expected to be without top CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring). That makes this spot for Moore much easier. And even though Kyle Allen has played some of the worst football we’ve seen in recent weeks, he’s still feeding Moore relentlessly. Moore’s ability to turn short targets into big gains with his tackle-breaking yards-after-catch ability gives him a chance to score from anywhere on the field. He’s top-10 among qualified wideouts in YAC. This game’s 47-point total is fourth-highest of Week 12, and the Panthers figure to be chasing on the scoreboard much of the day as 9.5-point underdogs.

 

Calvin Ridley vs. Bucs -- WR12 (FanDuel, WR16, $6,700)

 

Ridley is the WR12 on DraftKings. Not as egregious as the D.J. Moore price, but this is as glorious of a spot a wideout can see any given week. The Bucs are a true pass-funnel defense, checking in at 30th in pass-defense DVOA, 31st in passing yards allowed per game, and 31st in touchdowns allowed through the air while facing the league’s most pass attempts. Tampa Bay is also 24th in opponent plays per game. Both the Bucs and Falcons are top-15 in offensive pace, so this game has major shootout appeal as evidenced by its 51-point total, easily the highest of the week. Ridley just ripped apart the Panthers for 8-143-1 on eight targets in Week 11.

 

DeVante Parker at Browns -- WR21 (FanDuel, WR29, $6,000; DraftKings, WR29, $5,200)

 

Parker never feels like a safe play, but he’s quietly been one of the most consistent wideouts in the league through 11 weeks. Parker has 55-plus yards and/or one touchdown in 9-of-10 games this season and just went for 135 yards against the Bills’ elite secondary in Week 11. Parker is in the upper echelon of wideouts in air yards, and the Dolphins are routinely trailing on the scoreboard. With Preston Williams (knee) done for the season, Parker is by far Miami’s No. 1 target. The Dolphins are 10.5-point road dogs. Parker has target volume and upside on his side.

 

Dallas Goedert vs. Seahawks -- TE6 (FanDuel, TE14, $5,200; DraftKings, TE11, $3,700)

 

Since Week 4, Goedert has played 73% of the Eagles’ snaps and is top-15 among tight ends in yards per route in that span. He’s seen 5.6 targets per game over the last five weeks. Zach Ertz is seeing eight targets per game in the same span, but Goedert has three touchdowns to Ertz’s one and leads the team in targets inside the 10-yard line on the year. Goedert is a full-time player, especially with how banged up the Eagles are at wideout. Two tight ends is this team’s base offense. Seattle is 25th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Austin Hooper (6-65-1), Ricky Seals-Jones (3-47-1), Gerald Everett (7-136), Vance McDonald (7-38-2), and C.J. Uzomah (4-66) have all had success against the Seahawks. Goedert and Ertz are Carson Wentz’s go-to guys in the scoring area, and this game’s 48-point total is second-highest on the board.

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