DFS Value Finder: Week 11

Kyle Dvorchak
·5 min read



This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’m taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.

Deshaun Watson vs. Patriots -- QB7 (Fanduel, QB8, $7,700)

Watson is coming off a bad game versus Cleveland but his lacking performance is largely the fault of a storm that ruined all efforts to complete forward passes from both teams. Before last week, Watson was on a tear of six games with at least two scores. He also had five consecutive games with 280 or more passing yards. While many DFS players perceive New England as a stalwart defense, they are nothing compared to their 2019 form. The Patriots are allowing 50 more passing yards per game and are 10th in passing yards allowed this year. Ignore the middling matchup and take the value with Watson.

Carson Wentz vs. Browns -- QB12 (DraftKings, QB13, $5,600)

Wentz has been an erratic passer this year but his fantasy numbers have been adequate. Among the starting passers on the main slate, his 19.9 DraftKings points per game are 11th. He has scored multiple times in seven of nine games this year when including his rushing touchdowns, which have become a considerable part of his fantasy arsenal. Wentz is averaging 4.6 carries for 22.9 yards and .6 touchdowns. His price on DraftKings is far below his fantasy output when factoring in his newfound rushing role.

Cam Newton vs. Texans -- QB11 (Yahoo, QB13, $27)

After a stretch of games that nearly got him benched for good, Newton has reemerged as an efficient passer in recent weeks. From Week 3 to Week 7, Newton didn’t average over five adjusted yards per attempt once. Since then, he hasn’t dipped below seven adjusted yards per attempt. His production on the ground has been incredible throughout the year. He is posting 41.9 yards and 1.1 touchdowns per game. Both marks are top-three among passers. Newton is one of the highest-floor quarterbacks on any slate because of his legs.

Miles Sanders vs. Browns -- RB5 (Fanduel, RB7, $7,700)

Despite getting nearly all of the backfield touches for Philadelphia last week, Sanders managed to score zero times while the Eagles backs combined for two rushing touchdowns. Corey Clement and Boston Scott each scored and did so on five total touches. Sanders rushed 15 times and saw five targets. He is still a workhorse back but touchdown variance currently has his price in check.

Antonio Gibson vs. Bengals -- RB14 (DraftKings, RB16, $5,800)

On a slate that is loaded with expensive receivers to pay up for, saving some money at running back might be the way to get to the optimal lineup. Gibson has topped 15 opportunities (carries plus targets) in four of his previous six games and Washington is favored this week. They face the Bengals and Vegas gives them a 1.5-point edge. In Washington’s only win since Week 1, Gibson recorded a career-high 20 carries.

James Conner vs. Jaguars -- RB14 (Yahoo, RB14, $21)

Conner has disappointed in consecutive weeks but his role within the Pittsburgh offense hasn’t shifted. Outside of Week 1, when Conner left with an injury, Weeks 9 and 10 were his two worst weeks in terms of carries. Despite the low volume, Conner still saw 71 percent of the backfield carries and 67 percent of the backfield targets in those games. As 10.5-point favorites versus a weak Jacksonville defense, Conner should get back on track.

Brandin Cooks vs. Patriots -- WR21 (Fanduel, WR25, $6,100)

Cooks is simply the No. 1 receiver for Deshaun Watson and his price on all DFS sites does not reflect that. Since Bill O’Brien was fired, Cooks leads the Texans in air yards (453) and targets (47). His matchup with the Patriots has a 49-point total, fourth-highest on the main slate. Keep going back to Cooks until he becomes more expensive than Will Fuller.

Diontae Johnson vs. Jaguars -- WR11 (DraftKings, WR15, $5,900)

Johnson has five games with double-digit targets this year. The games he hasn’t hit that mark have all seen him go down with some kind of injury. He currently has a clean bill of health and gets a Jaguars Defense that is allowing 8.5 yards per target, higher than any other team in the league. Volume plus a great matchup equals another solid performance from Johnson.

D.J. Moore vs. Lions -- WR22 (Yahoo, WR28, $18)

Moore continues to be underpriced on all sites despite consistently out-producing his cost. He has five games over 90 receiving yards this season. Only four other receivers can make that claim. Even though Moore is considered to be the No. 2 receiver in Carolina, his air yards share of 41 percent is tied for first in the NFL. Robby Anderson gets the targets but when Carolina wants to move the chains, they go to Moore.

Taysom Hill vs. Falcons -- N/A (Fanduel, TE30, $4,500)

Our Expert Rankers have Hill as a viable QB2 in season-long leagues but Fanduel has him listed as a tight end. He is expected to start at quarterback for the Saints and even the scoring of a QB3 is better than almost every tight end. This is simply a weird decision by Fanduel that makes Hill one of the best values at tight end in the history of DFS.

T.J. Hockenson vs. Panthers -- TE4 (DraftKings, TE7, $4,200)

Hockenson is just one of three tight ends with at least four targets in every game this year and he has played on 60 percent or more of the Lions’ offensive snaps in all nine Detroit matches. The Panthers are also allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. This slate is devoid of any stud tight ends so Hockenson’s solid floor is more than enough on DraftKings.

Noah Fant vs. Dolphins -- TE6 (Yahoo, TE11, $16)

Fant enters Week 11 with a top-10 target share on a team that is attempting 38 passes per game, seventh-most in the league. The Broncos are 3.5-point dogs to the Dolphins which should limit them to a pass-heavy approach. His TE11 price is out of line with his potential volume this week.