DFS Building Blocks: Week 8 Fantasy Breakdown



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Quarterback

Chalk

Tua Tagovailoa

Tua ranks third in the NFL in EPA per play. The Dolphins rank top-10 in pass rate over expected (PROE). They face a defense ranked 32nd in EPA per dropback allowed. Expect Tua to be the most popular quarterback by a significant margin.

Jalen Hurts

None of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, or Lamar Jackson are on the main slate. That leaves just Hurts to pay up for at quarterback. With plenty of value at receiver and no expensive options at tight end, getting up to the lone elite quarterback will be a popular move. Pittsburgh's defense has allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points to opposing passers and the Eagles have the second-highest team total of the main slate.

Pivots

Jared Goff

The Dolphins' defense has faced the third-highest PROE this year and the Lions' offense has the highest implied team total of any underdog this week. Goff ranks seventh in touchdown rate (5.2 percent) and 11th in yards per attempt (7.5). In a matchup that will force Detroit to throw, pairing Goff with Amon-Ra St. Brown is a unique way to attack the Lions/Dolphins game.

Sam Ehlinger

On DraftKings, Ehlinger is just $4,000. In his two seasons of preseason action, he ran eight times for 126 yards and a touchdown. In four years at Texas, Ehlinger ran for 2,471 yards and 33 scores. His price combined with his rushing potential allows for some unique teams.

Running Back

Chalk

Raheem Mostert

Mostert ran a route on 71 percent of the Dolphins' dropbacks last week and was targeted five times. He has 15 touches in every game since Week 3 and has turned Chase Edmonds into a pure backup. Facing the No. 31 defense in rush EPA per play allowed, Mostert is in a great spot.

Tony Pollard

We've seemingly waited an eternity for this moment. Now is our time. This season, Pollard has broken runs of 15 or more yards at a right five times higher than Ezekiel Elliott. Pollard has also averaged a missed tackle forced on 22 percent of his carries. That clip is nine percent higher than Zeke's. With the plodder listed as doubtful, it's Pollard's time to shine.

Pivots

D'Onta Foreman

Paying down for running backs below Pollard and Mostert won't be a popular option, but there is a potential bell-cow lurking in the basement of the pricing structure on both sites. Chuba Hubbard is out this week, leaving Raheem Blackshear as the only back competing with Foreman for touches. Last week, Foreman rushed 15 times for 118 yards and caught two passes. 

Dalvin Cook

There are plenty of popular pay-up options at running back this week, but Cook won't be one of them. DFS players are going to target the Vikings through their passing attack, making Cook the ideal leverage option among Minnesota players. Cook ranks ninth in rushing yards per game and has three outings with more than 90 rushing yards.

Wide Receiver

Chalk

D.J. Moore

With Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson both sent packing, P.J. Walker has been forced to lean on Moore. Versus the Bucs, he logged a 48 percent target share and a 51 percent air yards share. Walker has generally struggled in the NFL but played the best game of his career last week. He will need another surprising performance to keep Moore afloat.

Tyreek Hill

Hill leads the NFL with 3.38 yards per route run. The gap between him and Stefon Diggs (No. 2) is larger than the gap between Diggs and Jakobi Meyers (No. 11). The Dolphins also have the highest team total of the week.

Pivots

Cooper Kupp

Paying beyond $9,000 (on DraftKings) for any player is going to be a tough sell this week. There are plenty of great options for less salary. However, there is not a better fantasy player on this slate than Kupp. He leads all FLEX options with 27 DraftKings points per game. Kupp also ranks first in expected fantasy appoints among all of the FLEX players. 

Alec Pierce

In Matt Ryan's final two starts, Pierce was doomed from the first snap. The offense was designed to hide Ryan behind a low aDOT, making deep-threat Pierce an afterthought. With Sam Ehlinger under center, throwing downfield should become a priority of the offense once again. Pierce also set a career-high in snap share (97 percent) in Week 7.

Tight End

Chalk

Tyler Higbee

Higbee is the safest tight end on the slate. Despite having his bye under his belt already, Higbee is one of just four tight ends with at least 50 targets. His 23 percent target share ranks fourth among all tight ends.

Irv Smith

Tight end is atrocious this week and Smith plays in a game that will feature plenty of points. The total sits at 49, the second-highest mark of the week. The Vikings also have a 26.25 implied team total. 

Since his Week 1 flop, Smith is averaging a respectable 5.4 targets per game. He is the strongest pay-down option we have.

Pivots

Juwan Johnson

Adam Trautman appears to be on the wrong side of questionable this week, putting Johnson in line for another strong role. Last week, with Trautman out, Johnson ran a route on 79 percent of the Saints' passing plays. He found the end zone twice. Johnson is also questionable, though he has a better shot at suiting up than his teammate.

George Kittle

With Deebo Samuel ruled out, Kittle deserves to be the most expensive, and most popular tight end of the slate. Samuel's absence will boost how ownership, but I don't see him surpassing Higbee. Since Week 6, Kittle ranks fifth in target share among tight ends while playing alongside Samuel.