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DFS Building Blocks: Week 12 Fantasy Breakdown
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Quarterback
Chalk
With only Lamar Jackson on the main slate to pay up for outside of Mahomes, DFS players are going to flock to the MVP favorite this week. The Chiefs have the second-highest implied team total of the main slate.
Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards per game (329) and touchdowns per game (2.8). The only reason not to play him this week is his sky-high ownership.
Facing a Houston defense that ranks 27th in EPA per dropback, Tua and the Dolphins actually have the highest implied team total of the Sunday slate, topping the Chiefs by 1.5 points.
If you remove the game Tagovailoa left with a head injury, he ranks second in the NFL in passing yards per game. He is averaging 308 yards per week and is severely underpriced on Fanduel and DraftKings.
Pivots
The Bengals look to be in line for another game with a high pass rate. Joe Mixon is out and the Titans have faced the highest pass rate over expected this year. It's not surprising that teams have attacked Tennessee through the air. They rank second in the NFL in rush EPA allowed but 12th in dropback EPA.
Carr is normally a high-floor but low-ceiling option. His Week 12 matchup with the Seahawks has shootout potential. Seattle ranks 24th in EPA per dropback allowed and has given up the 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. The Raiders' pass defense has also been horrific, which could spur a back-and-forth affair.
This game currently features a 47.5-point total, the second-highest of the main slate. Playing it through the air as opposed to the running backs will be a high-leverage way to build a tournament lineup.
Running Back
Chalk
Walker and the Seahawks got Week 11 off, but the last time we saw them, the rookie had become a three-down back. He earned a 24 percent target share while running a route on 73 percent of Geno Smith's dropbacks. That was while dominating the team's carries. With the line moving out to Seahawks -5, Walker deserves to be a popular option this week.
Raheem Mostert is doubtful for this game and things were trending toward Wilson having a strong role anyway. Before the Phins' Week 11 bye, Wilson played on 61 percent of Miami's snaps versus the Browns. He touched the ball 22 times and amassed 143 yards. He should get plenty of opportunities in a likely blowout of Houston.
Pivots
Michael Carter
With Mike White under center, Carter should see a considerable uptick in his receiving role. Carter averaged 9.7 targets per game in the three games White logged at least a 70 percent snap share last year. His team could also be playing from ahead if they end up facing Trevor Siemian.
Perine took over the Bengals' backfield after Mixon left Week 11 with a concussion. He logged a 70 percent snap share and earned 15 touches. Chris Evans is back this week, but he will, at most, serve as a change-of-pace option for the Bengals. Mixon ranks top-five in expected fantasy points among running backs. Perine could inherit the bulk of that role for Week 12.
Wide Receiver
Chalk
Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback for the Commanders in Week 7. Since then, McLaurin has a 33 percent target share and a 56 percent air yards share. He leads the NFL in air yards share over that span. He is the best value at his position on the slate.
Hill is putting together one of the greatest seasons we've ever seen from a receiver. His 3.61 yards per route run is .85 higher than Justin Jefferson, who ranks second in the league. That gap is as large as the chasm between Jefferson and the No. 24 receiver. Hill is also on pace to finish second all-time in receiving yards in a single season.
Pivots
In his past two games without Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, Hollins has earned a 20 percent target share and a 32 percent air yards share. He has taken the field for 96 percent of the Raiders' snaps in that span. Davante Adams is the obvious pairing option with Carr, but don't forget about Hollins.
Whenever Chase is out, Higgins becomes a slam dunk play. Since Chase went down, Higgins has a 27 percent target share and a 43 percent air yards share. With little competition for targets, expect Higgins to take advantage of a receiver-friendly matchup.
Tight End
Chalk
Moreau has at least been on the field often since Darren Waller went down. In his past five games, Moreau has missed a total of six snaps. On the other hand, he has caught more than three passes just once. I would only use Moreau in lineups that correlate him with Carr or Geno Smith.
Kelce already has 11 touchdowns this season, matching his career-high with seven games to go. If his pace of 22.3 PPR points per game holds through the end of the year, he will smash the single-season record for fantasy points by a tight end.
Pivots
Kittle's production has been spotty this year, but he is still one of the most efficient tight ends in the NFL. He ranks sixth in yards per route run (1.77) and sixth in yards after the catch per reception (6.8). The addition of Christian McCaffrey has taken some targets off the table, but it has also freed Kittle up in the red zone. He is second on the team in red zone targets since Week 7 and tied for first in end zone looks.
