DFS Building Blocks: Week 11 Fantasy Breakdown



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Quarterback

Chalk

Justin Fields

The Bears are making a clear effort to take advantage of Fields' absurd athletic traits and it's paying off in droves. Fields has seen 64 percent of his designed runs on the year come in his past four games. According to RotoViz, his 36 expected fantasy points on the ground over the past four weeks are more than Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson combined.

Daniel Jones

Jones isn't a high-volume thrower, but he does more damage than all but the elite runners on the ground. He ranks fourth in rush attempts (69) and yards (387) among all quarterbacks. He's also fourth in red zone carries (14). The Lions have allowed the second-most rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. 

Pivots

Marcus Mariota

The Atlanta/Chicago game is going to be the most popular contest to stack. It has a 49.5-point total and features two defenses ranked bottom-five in EPA per play allowed.

Attacking it from the Atlanta side is cheap and will be far less popular than using Fields. Mariota is top-10 in rushing yards, carries, and touchdowns.

Josh Allen

Per usual, Allen will be top-five in quarterback ownership, but it's easy to make the argument that he should be the most popular option every week. Allen leads all quarterbacks in both DraftKings and Fanduel points per game. He has eight QB1 games on the year, tied for first with Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. The Bills' pass rate over expected also locks in a high floor and an elite ceiling.

Fields and Allen are both great plays. Both will be popular. However, if Fields is in more lineups, I want to be betting on Allen.

Running Back

Chalk

 

David Montgomery 

Montgomery has played on at least two-thirds of Chicago's snaps in each of the past three weeks and Khalil Herbert was active for all of those games. He is now on injured reserve, paving the way for a massive workload for Montgomery. He gets an Atlanta defense that is 26th in rush EPA per play and allows the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing backs. 

Dameon Pierce

Pierce's role on the ground is elite. He also has some potential through the air. Since Week 4, Pierce has run a route 53 percent of Davis Mills' dropbacks. He has seen an absurd, 87 percent of the team's carries. Pierce also ranks 10th in yards after contact per carry and second in missed tackles forced.

Pivots

 

 Saquon Barkley

Barkley has been elite all year, but he gets fed like no other back when the Giants win. He is averaging an extra 6.4 carries for 47 additional yards in wins versus losses. The only thing skewing his fantasy output down in wins has been fluky touchdown luck. 

Unsurprisingly, the Giants, playing at home versus the 3-6 Lions, are favorites. Detroit's defense ranks 29th in EPA per rush attempt allowed. Given how much ownership is going to move toward a handful of expensive quarterbacks, using Barkley with a pay-down option will be a way to build a high-ceiling roster that looks drastically different from most lineups. 

Brian Robinson

Using Brian Robinson, who is coming off a 26-carry game, and even the Commanders' defense as direct leverage off Pierce will be a contrarian way to start your lineup. The Commanders are three-point favorites versus an atrocious Houston run defense this week. Pierce was on roughly 20 percent of lineups in DraftKings' $3 contest last week and his ownership went up in higher stakes. He projects to be similarly popular this week.

Wide Receiver

Chalk

CeeDee Lamb

Lamb has reached 70 yards in all three games since Dak Prescott's return. He has a 30 percent target share and a 41 percent air yards share since Week 7. The Minnesota/Dallas game also has the third-highest total of the main slate.  Lamb is simply underpriced for his massive role this week.

Justin Jefferson

Jefferson is one of just three FLEX players with four games over 30 DraftKings points this season. He's second to Tyreek Hill in receiving yards and 20-yard receptions. Without Hill or Cooper Kupp available, Jefferson will be the expensive receiver most DFS players flock to.

Pivots

Davante Adams 

Adams is another one of the three players with four blowup games. With Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller out last week, Derek Carr peppered him with 14 targets. He reeled in nine catches for 126 yards and a score. That was on the back of a 37 percent target share.

Gabe Davis

Since Buffalo's game was moved to Detroit, the total has moved up 7.5 points. The Bills' team total is up four points from its lowest level. A weatherless matchup indoors with a defense that ranks 26th in EPA per dropback allowed is great news for Davis, Stefon Diggs, and even Dawson Knox.

Tight End

Chalk

Greg Dulcich

Since coming off injured reserve in Week 6, Dulcich has seen 16 percent of the Broncos' targets and 20 percent of their air yards. His 13.5 aDOT trails only Kyle Pitts among all tight ends. Possibly down multiple receivers, Dulcich is a safe bet for a usable stat line this week.

Mark Andrews

Andrews is listed as questionable but got in a full practice on Friday. He should be able to suit up this week. Despite catching three passes for 33 yards in his previous two games, Andrews leads all tight ends in air yards share (29 percent) and air yards share (36 percent). As the only expensive option, Andrews appeared on track to be a popular choice this week. However, the injury concern could keep his ownership in check, making stacks with him and Lamar Jackson extremely valuable.

Pivots

Foster Moreau

Moreau returned from a knee issue just as Darren Waller went down with an injury of his own. That was in Week 7. Since then, he has been on the field for 236 of 242 offensive plays run by the Raiders. He ranks second on the team in target share since returning to the lineup.

T.J. Hockenson

Hockenson has earned a 21 percent target share since being traded to Minnesota. He has played on 90 percent of the team's snaps and has a quarter of Kirk Cousins' looks in the red zone. Through two games, Hockenson looks like the de facto WR2 in Minnesota.