As defensive tackles get paid, what could a deal look like for the Dolphins’ Christian Wilkins?

If you’re a top defensive tackle in the NFL, it’s probably been a good offseason.

Days before free agency opened, the Washington Commanders’ Daron Payne signed a four-year deal worth $90 million. A few days later, Javon Hargrave left the Philadelphia Eagles for a four-year, $84 million deal with the San Francisco 49ers. And last Friday, the Tennessee Titans and Jeffrey Simmons agreed to a four-year extension with a total value of $94 million.

Simmons’ deal could be a telling reference point for the Dolphins, who are in talks with Christian Wilkins on an extension. Simmons, like Wilkins, was a first-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and was set to play under the fifth-year option in 2023.

Pending deals for the New York Jets’ Quinnen Williams and New York Giants’ Dexter Lawrence, who are also members of the 2019 Draft class, could further guide the Dolphins and Wilkins in discussions. But across the NFL this offseason, the going rate for an elite defensive tackle has already been revealed.

Since entering the league as the No. 13 overall pick, Wilkins has steadily improved each season and has become a leader for an emerging Dolphins team. In 2022, Wilkins set career-high totals in tackles (98) while adding 3.5 sacks, one shy of tying his career-best mark in 2021. The 27-year-old is one of the top run defenders in the NFL and an integral member of Miami’s defense.

He’s deserving of a raise but what could a new deal look like?

This offseason, Payne, Hargrave and Simmons, all of whom have been named to at least one Pro Bowl, signed deals with annual values of at least $20 million. The deals fall short of Los Angeles Rams star Aaron Donald, who is earning close to $32 million per year on the new reworked deal he agreed to last year. However, the new $20 million-per-year benchmark these players reached underscores the importance of interior defensive linemen in today’s game, especially as teams use lighter boxes to curtail the passing explosion.

In new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s scheme, which uses high rates of two-high-safety shells and light boxes, Wilkins’ ability to shoot gaps and disrupt the running game will be a valued skill set, maybe even more so than before. His 98 tackles this past season set an NFL record for most tackles recorded in a single season by an NFL defensive lineman in the past decade.

Though schemes and responsibilities vary for players across the league, where Wilkins trails some of his counterparts with new deals is pass-rush production. He has recorded 54 pressures and 11.5 sacks in four seasons, according to Pro Football Reference. Payne had similar pass-rush numbers to Wilkins before a breakout fifth season in which he recorded a career-best 11.5 sacks. Zach Allen, who has the same pressure and sack totals as Wilkins without as much of an impact against the run, signed a three-year deal with an average annual value of $15 million with the Denver Broncos.

Perhaps a better comparison to Wilkins would be Vita Vea, an elite run defender who like Wilkins had 11.5 sacks entering his fifth season. In January 2022, Vea and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers agreed to a four-year extension worth $71 million.

What’s clear is keeping Wilkins won’t come cheap. But an extension, with a significant signing bonus spread out over multiple years, would free up cap space for the Dolphins in the immediate future. It would provide some stability to the defensive line as Zach Sieler and Raekwon Davis enter the final year of their contracts. And it’d be a show of good faith for one of the team’s many rising stars.

“Christian, ever since we drafted him, has done nothing but get better each year,” general manager Chris Grier said at the NFL Scouting Combine in March. “He is a tireless worker, as we’ve talked about. You guys have heard me talk about how he works around the building. He’s in every day. He’s still in the offseason. I’ve seen him around more than anyone. He loves the game. He loves our organization. We love him. We’d like to have him here for a long time. But in terms of conversations with agents, we don’t really talk publicly about it, but we would like to have him here a long time.”