NFL Data Dump: What the numbers say about the Browns
The end of the first week of the NFL season brings about the start of weekly analytic breakdowns. Cleveland Browns fans are lucky as there are multiple different people, groups, and businesses to help break down the numeric side of the game Football is not a game played on spreadsheets, but it’s more easily digested that way.
In our inaugural data dump of the season, we are including stats about both the week 1 matchup specifically, and how the Browns compare to the rest of the NFL. We will be publishing updates every week to follow the Browns’ statistical movements as they vie for the AFC North title.
We’ll start by analyzing the game against the Bengals, before zooming out towards the macro state.
Did the Browns really beat the Bengals that badly? Yes they did.
This is a fun metric that measures the extent to which one team beats another team. A high net success rating means a team dominated for most of the game. A low net success rating means a team benefited from random variances such as turnovers or big special teams’ plays.
Did We Really Get Beat That Bad? (NFL edition)
Net Success Rates in Week 1Really enjoy when Parker puts these out so thought I would put it together for the NFL (still trying to make mine look as nice as his). 7/16 games featured the worse offense winning this week https://t.co/7LedRBnCPg pic.twitter.com/pMJ24YB7up
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) September 12, 2023
Browns' secondary blew the rest of the league out of the water
Deshaun Watson threw the ball downfield... a lot.
A look at Nick Chubb and the offensive line
I love Ben Baldwin’s composite blocking chart. Ben combines PFF’s offensive line grades, with ESPN’s RFID-based tracking data used to analyze performance. I’m not a big fan of PFF’s grading, so seeing how it relates to more objective data is always interesting.
2 measures of pass protection from week 1.
Not a ton of agreement at this point in the season but I think we can all agree that the Giants and Bengals did not fare well.
Might we see Herbert & Tua with pass protection this year?? pic.twitter.com/ifnF06oVL0
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) September 12, 2023
What tier are the Browns in?
In the Expected Points Added tier system, the Browns round out the top 10, despite the second-best defensive performance of the week. Hopefully, improved weather conditions will be the catalyst for the Browns’ offense to snap into shape.
—> WEEK 1 NFL THREAD <—
Is it way too early to learn very much? Yes
Is this website barely even useable anymore? Also yes
Will I post anyway? Of courseNote that the average offense was *way* below 0 EPA/play- it was not a good start for NFL offenses pic.twitter.com/q63DWMVghw
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) September 12, 2023
Market-Derived team tiers
DVOA
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average, commonly known as “DVOA”, has moved from Football Outsiders to FTNFantasy this season. DVOA has been an invaluable metric since it appeared more than a decade and a half ago. It’s important to note that the metric doesn’t become “Defense-Adjusted” until week 4.
After the Browns blew out the favorite to win the AFC North, the Browns shot up to number 3 in total DVOA. The defense was number 2 overall after holding the Bengals to three points. Unfortunately, the offensive side of the ball needs a lot of work, despite ranking 10th overall.
TEAM | TOTAL | DAVE | RANK | W-L | OFF. | OFF. | DEF. | DEF. | S.T. | S.T. |
DAL | 79.10% | 21.10% | 1 | 1-0 | 14.70% | 9 | -66.60% | 1 | -2.30% | 21 |
JAX | 58.00% | 6.60% | 8 | 1-0 | 10.70% | 12 | -35.20% | 3 | 12.10% | 2 |
CLE | 51.80% | 12.30% | 5 | 1-0 | 12.90% | 10 | -39.30% | 2 | -0.40% | 19 |
Note: DAVE is a metric combining DVOA with FTN’s pre-season rankings.
The creator of the metric, Aaron Schatz had little to say about the Browns this week.
“Some of the teams at the top of our ratings are teams we projected highly for this season, such as Dallas (1), San Francisco (5), and Philadelphia (10). Others are teams we had as more mediocre. We were higher than conventional wisdom on Cleveland (3) but we got bigger than expected Week 1 wins from teams such as Jacksonville (2) and Green Bay (4).”
The Browns are finally getting respect from some of the top data-driven minds around football.
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