Dan Campbell took a lot of heat from fans for some of his in-game decisions and clock management during the 2022 season. Most analytics backed Campbell and his questionable choices, however.
The Lions coach based much of his methodology on analytics and data analysis, notably on when to go for it on fourth down and in managing the clock at the end of halves. Not surprisingly, Campbell’s decisions earned the Lions tremendous value in the “win probability added” metric.
Per analytics site SumerSports, Campbell’s in-game choices gave the Lions the third-most win probability added over expectation. Only Nick Sirianni of the Eagles and Sean McDermott of the Bills augmented their teams’ chances of winning with in-game coaching decisions more than Campbell did for Detroit.
As noted in a follow-up tweet, the calculations here are only about the in-game decisions on timeouts, fourth downs and play calls. It doesn’t deal with talent and perceived achievement relative to the talent on the team.
The decisions didn’t always work for Campbell, but that’s where the talent on the team and execution come into play.