Minty Bets previews the Thursday Night NFC tilt featuring the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints. She picks against the spread, has a lean on the total, and has a couple of player props as well.
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MINTY BETS: Welcome to Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. It's Thursday, December 2, 2021. And I'm your betting guide, Minty Bets. Let's dive into a huge Thursday Night Football match-up between the Cowboys and Saints. The Cowboys are a 4 and 1/2 point road favorites. And the total is 48 and 1/2. I actually really like this game just for the game, not so much the betting aspect. We know the Cowboys are one of the best teams against the spread. And the Saints are trending downward.
They're not as dominant at home as they were in the past. There are quite a few players and even coaching staff ruled out for this match-up. So it'll be a little tricky to predict. But let's try our best here. My favorite bet for this Dallas New Orleans game will be the Saints plus 4 and 1/2. I must disclose that I have already bet it at plus 5 and 1/2 when the line first opened. But I would bet it as low as Saints plus 3 and 1/2 if I had to. And here's why.
Taysom Hill will be under center for New Orleans. And although I don't love him as the quarterback, I think he brings a lot of versatility to the team. This will be a run heavy Saints offense. As we know, Hill is quick and efficient. But Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are expected to be back in this game, which boosts this ground game even more. This Dallas defense is below average and allows 4.4 yards per carry, which is tied fifth most in the league. And they also allow the sixth most rushing touchdowns in the NFL this season.
This team is missing six members of the coaching staff and an offensive tackle to the COVID-19 list. And of course, perhaps missing Amari Cooper as well. But CeeDee Lamb is back. This comes at a bad time, as the Cowboys have lost three of their last four games. The controlled New Orleans run game along with this defense that's recorded the fifth most interceptions and the fifth fewest passing touchdowns, along with the best run stop unit, will be enough to not only cover the spread, but I believe they'll win straight up.
Next, onto the total. Again, I don't actually bet on prime time totals anymore. But both the Saints and Cowboys are right next to each other when it comes to points per game allowed at 22. As I mentioned earlier, the Saints should have a controlled ground game, meaning things will play out a little slower. But when they get things rolling, they are a fast team to put points up on the board. They should be able to find holes in that Dallas defense. And I do expect the Cowboys to make mistakes against this New Orleans defense.
Onto some props. First up, we're going to go to Dak Prescott. He has his pass completion set at 24 and 1/2. I'll go on with the over at minus 105. He's only gone under this total in four games this season. And with CeeDee Lamb back in the mix, he now has a reliable target to catch those passes. I think 24 and 1/2 is set pretty low. Next, I love kicker props. We're looking to Greg Zuerlein today, AKA, Greg the leg. And he hasn't been too hot this season. He's missed three field goals and one extra point in his last four games.
And although I don't believe he'll miss any this time around, I believe most of his kicking points will come from extra points rather than being held to field goals. His kicking point's made is set at 7 and 1/2 with the under juice step minus 145. I like the under here. And lastly, we're going to end this one with a New Orleans Saint, Deonte Harris. His receiving yards is set at 33 and 1/2, which is very, very low. He hasn't gone close to this yardage in his last two games. And with Taysom Hill under center, I don't think we'll be seeing much production from him. So I will go with the under.
Now to recap my picks, I've got the Saints plus 4 and 1/2 and the moneyline plus 165 over 48 and 1/2, which is a lean. Dak Prescott over 24 and 1/2 pass completions minus 105. Greg Zuerlein under 7 and 1/2 kicking points made, minus 145. And Deonte Harris under 33 and 1/2 receiving yards minus 115.
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