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Daily Fantasy Week 4: Monday night picks for Raiders-Chargers

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By Jeff Hicks, 4for4

Special to Yahoo Sports

Yahoo is expanding its daily fantasy football options in 2021 with a single-game offering. Yahoo has a roster construction of one "Superstar" that scores at a 1.5 multiplier, while the remaining four FLEX roster spots accumulate points at the normal rate. This is half-point PPR scoring and the "Superstar" salary does not change from the Utility. All scoring and rules can be found here.

Former California roommates reunite in Los Angeles when the Las Vegas Raiders take on the Los Angeles Chargers.

It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players that can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players that could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.

Vegas Total and Spread

The Chargers are three-point home favorites with an Over/Under of 51 points. Los Angeles has an implied team total of 27 points, while Las Vegas has an implied team total of 24 points.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

What do we want? High-paced teams that can score!

When do we want it? Now!

You got it. The Chargers and Raiders game is Week 4’s best game when combining two teams for pace of play and plays run by an offense. That has led to Justin Herbert ($33) picking up where he left off his rookie season, and Derek Carr ($28) to reach career-highs in yards gained per attempt, yards per completion, and sack percentage. Both offenses pass the ball at least 64% of the time in neutral game scripts. Los Angeles is one of three teams in the NFL that passes the ball 68% of the time or more and has a red-zone passing rate over 50%.

That type of passing is why Keenan Allen ($27), Mike Williams ($25), and Austin Ekeler ($32) remain constants in all game situations. Heading into Week 4, the trio has caught 12 of Herbert’s 14 red-zone completions while Ekeler has 10 carries inside the 20-yard line. Allen and Williams lead the league with nine and eight red zone targets, respectively. The only other passing option that comes close to being in the picture for L.A. is Jared Cook (5.3 targets per game, third on team). No other player has a target share over 7% or air yard share over 9.3%.

[Visit 4for4, where 92% of subscribers made the playoffs, for more]

It did not take long for opposing defenses to key in on Darren Waller ($26). His fantasy points per game are buoyed by a massive Week 1. He has not touched double-digit fantasy points in half-point PPR since. The biggest surprise that has led the Raiders to start 3-0 is Carr’s ability to share the wealth amongst pass-catchers. Five players have target shares over 10% and four have air yard shares over the same threshold. It has been an excellent addition to an offense that has run first and asked questions later. Carr and the passing attack will be tested by the top defense against opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric (aFPA).

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - DECEMBER 26:  Quarterback Derek Carr #4 of the Las Vegas Raiders talks with tight end Darren Waller #83 on the sideline in the first half of their game against the Miami Dolphins at Allegiant Stadium on December 26, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Dolphins defeated the Raiders 26-25.  (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Derek Carr hasn't been able to hit his favorite target as often with defenses focusing more on Darren Waller. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

The biggest injury concern comes courtesy of Raiders workhorse Josh Jacobs ($21). It is unquestioned that he is their go-to back in running situations, but after missing the last two games and being a true game-time decision, it is fair to question his role if he is active. Peyton Barber ($16) had 26 (!) touches in Week 3 in the Jacobs role. The work is there and opportunity is king but an iffy Jacobs muddles the upside of Barber and himself.

Close, low-scoring game

  • Josh Jacobs, Peyton Barber

  • Darren Waller

  • Raiders defense

  • Austin Ekeler

  • Keenan Allen

  • Chargers defense

Close, high-scoring game

  • Derek Carr

  • Josh Jacobs, Peyton Barber, Kenyan Drake

  • Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards

  • Darren Waller

  • Justin Herbert

  • Austin Ekeler

  • Keenan Allen, Mike Williams

  • Jared Cook

Blowout for home team

  • Justin Herbert

  • Austin Ekeler

  • Keenan Allen, Mike Williams

  • Jared Cook

  • Chargers defense

  • Derek Carr

  • Kenyan Drake

  • Darren Waller

  • Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards

Blowout for road team

  • Derek Carr

  • Josh Jacobs, Peyton Barber, Kenyan Drake

  • Darren Waller

  • Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards

  • Raiders defense

  • Justin Herbert

  • Austin Ekeler

  • Keenan Allen, Mike Williams

[Play in Yahoo's $150K Single Game Baller for LV vs. LAC]

Cheap/Unique Stacking Option

Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.

Josh Jacobs ($21)/Peyton Barber ($16), Raiders Defense ($14), and Chargers Defense ($12)

Jacobs is not playing unless he can be on the field for majority of his workload and if he is inactive Barber will be the volume back. We also just saw a much worse Titans team hand the rock to Derrick Henry against a run funnel defense with little receiver help. The Chargers can lock down Vegas’ best and force the Raiders to run the ball.

The Raiders and Chargers both have positive turnover/takeaway differentials and have had difficult assignments each week (yes, the Dolphins are a tough assignment with a new QB). Monday night is another primetime game for Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby. He enters Week 4 with a 91.2 grade on Pro Football Focus and was on display in primetime Week 1 against Baltimore.

Low-Salary Volatile Plays

Alec Ingold ($10)

He was one of my Week 1 salary-savers and he finished with four receptions for 22 yards. Ingold also has two red zone catches, one resulting in a touchdown. He played a season-high 33.7% of snaps in Week 3.

Jared Cook ($13)

Despite playing fourth fiddle, Cook has seen his targets and receiving yards decrease each week this season.

Bryan Edwards ($12)

This is more about the salary being off than anything else. Edwards has at least 10 fantasy points in Yahoo formats in two of three games this season.

Jalen Guyton ($10)

Guyton is your answer to "Who is L.A.’s fourth receiver?" and "Who leads the Chargers in average target depth?" Guyton, like Cook, has seen his targets and yards decrease since Week 1. Guyton also has two rushing attempts.

Superstar Picks

Justin Herbert ($33)

Herbert would be the first QB this season to throw for 300 yards against the Raiders if he does so Monday night. Besides slowing down a dusty Ben Roethlisberger, the Raiders defense allowed at least 18 fantasy points to Lamar Jackson and Jacoby Brissett. Herbert does not have a rushing floor similar to those two but his arm makes up for it.

Austin Ekeler ($32)

Week 1 was the exception and not the rule after Ekeler saw one target in the passing game. In two games since, he has at least six targets, 50 receiving yards, and 18 fantasy points per contest.

Hunter Renfrow ($14)

When a baby loses a pacifier, it is imperative a second is nearby (#DadLife). Waller is going to be blanketed on every target, leaving Renfrow as Carr’s second pacifier. The slot receiver has an 18% target share and 0.28 expected receiving touchdowns per game (both second on LV).

Keenan Allen ($27)

Allen has at least 100 yards receiving or a touchdown in every game.

Darren Waller ($26)

The Chargers will be without LB Kenneth Murray after a midweek ankle injury. That is one less obstacle for Carr’s favorite target.

Mike Williams ($25)

Williams ends a salary tier and will be passed over for safer options such as Allen and Waller and also avoided for his expected touchdown regression. Williams has the best chance among Chargers wideouts to be the second 100-yard receiver against the Raiders defense.

This article originally appeared in its full form on 4for4.com

Jeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur level for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff enjoys running (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.

More from 4for4.com: Week 4 injury updates

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