Daily Fantasy Football: Week 18 matchup-based values
By Jordan Vanek
The basis for being successful in any daily fantasy sports contest, whether cash games or large-field GPPs, is finding value to build around. Using 4for4’s Yahoo DFS Value Report, we can uncover some of the best values at each position for the Week 18 slate.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen, Bills $40
The Bills are playing for the division this week, and the Jets have given up seven games over 20 points to quarterbacks this season. In Allen’s first matchup against them, he threw for 366 yards and two touchdowns on 28 attempts. The Jets have also scored over 20 points in three straight games, which bodes well for keeping Allen on the field and needing to score points. The Bills have a 29-point implied total and will use Allen a lot to get there.
Kyler Murray, Cardinals $35
The Cardinals take on the Seahawks, and this game has the highest over-under on the entire slate. The Seahawks give up the most yards after the catch in the entire NFL, and the Cardinals are top 10 in yards after the catch. Murray has also had over 40 yards rushing in four of the last five games.
Running Backs
D'Onta Foreman, Titans $23
Foreman has had over 100 yards in every game that he has gotten 15 or more carries, and as 10.5-point favorites on the road, he should see that workload. The Texans have given up three games over 100 yards rushing in the last four weeks and three games where the running back scored two touchdowns.
David Montgomery, Bears $25
Since Week 14, Montgomery has averaged the second-most touches of any running back in the NFL and has a 44% touch/snap rate. The Vikings have given up over 20 points to running backs five times this season, and four of these games have come in the last five weeks. The Vikings are also giving up 4.7 yards a carry which ranks bottom five in the NFL.
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman Jr., Colts $19
Pittman has had six or more targets in four of the last five games, and in the one game he did not, he had five targets and was ejected in the third quarter. Of the 24 wide receivers that have had at least six targets against the Jaguars, eight of them have had over 100 yards, and nine of them have caught touchdowns.
[Play in Yahoo's Week 18 Million Dollar Baller DFS contest]
DJ Moore, Panthers $15
DJ Moore has had seven or more targets in every single game this year. This past weekend with Darnold starting again, he had a 31% target share. As eight-point underdogs on the road, the passing volume should increase and result in Moore seeing over 10 targets which makes for good value against the 30th ranked defense in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz, Cardinals $20
The Cardinals are still playing for home-field advantage in the first round, and in the first game against Seattle, Ertz had eight receptions for 88 yards and two touchdowns. In the last four games, Ertz has averaged 10 targets a game and has the eighth-most targets overall.
Dawson Knox, Bills $20
The Bills are playing for home-field advantage and a chance at a first-round bye in the playoffs. They are taking on the New York Jets, who have given up over 100 yards to a tight end three times this year, and two of these games have come in the last four weeks. In 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric, the Jets rank 27th in the league against tight ends.
Defenses
Washington Football Team, $15
The over-under in this game is sitting at 37.5, and the Football Team are seven-point favorites. The Giants have turned the ball over 13 times since Week 13 and have scored more than 10 points once.
Cleveland Browns, $13
In the last three games that the Browns did not turn the ball over, their defense held each opponent under 20 points. The Bengals will be resting Joe Burrow, which means other starters may sit or play limited reps as well.
