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Daily Fantasy Football Week 13: Top stacks and value plays to target

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By TJ Hernandez, 4for4

Special to Yahoo Sports

Whether you are playing in the biggest tournament of the week on Yahoo or prefer to play in smaller GPPs, there are some general GPP strategies that you can implement in contests of any size. These concepts include stacking, finding pivots off of popular players, and targeting players that won’t be on many rosters.

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While it’s important to implement these into your lineup-building approach, the foundation of any tournament lineup is a solid core — usually players that you would use in cash games.

Stacks to Target

QB Deshaun Watson, Texans ($31)

WR Brandin Cooks, Texans ($18)

WR Michael Pittman Jr., Colts ($18)

Indianapolis travels to Houston for a game with an over/under of 51 points and a spread of just 3.5 favoring the Colts, but the public might somewhat overlook this game. Deshaun Watson’s stock takes a hit with Will Fuller suspended and Randall Cobb on IR facing an Indy defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Efficiency often trumps those facts and certainly suggests upside regardless of matchup and few quarterbacks have been as efficient as Watson — only three quarterbacks have averaged more fantasy points per pass attempt over the last six weeks.

With Fuller out, Brandin Cooks steps into a clear number-one role. The duo had combined for over 46% of Houston’s targets since their bye and Cooks should see his role in the deep passing game expand with Watson out.

Michael Pittman Jr. has seen his volume steadily increase with at least seven targets in three of his last four games and over a quarter of the Colts’ air yards in that span. The matchup is ripe against a Texans secondary ranked 27th against wide receivers in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.

QB Ryan Tannehill, Titans ($30)

WR A.J. Brown, Titans ($25)

WR, Jarvis Landry Browns ($15)

This stack offers a double-dose of leverage as it relies on passing-game correlation in a contest where both running backs should be among the most popular at their position. Tennesse’s 29.75 implied point total is the third-highest on the slate. Like Watson, Tannehill has been uber-efficient in recent weeks, averaging the fifth-most fantasy points per attempt since Week 8. Unsurprisingly, he’s leaned heavily on A.J. Brown in that stretch, offering him 25.8% of targets, the 12th-highest rate in football. That upside can be recognized with quick hits against a Cleveland defense that has allowed the second-most touchdown on deep passes this season (balls thrown 15+ yards downfield).

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Bringing it back with Jarvis Landry means a roster with two of 4for4’s top three wide receiver values with the added bonus of huge salary savings. Tennessee has been one of the most generous defenses in the league, ranking in the bottom 10 in schedule-adjusted points allowed to both quarterbacks and wide receivers. Landry is tied to Baker Mayfield, who has quietly tied Ryan Tannehill for a top-five fantasy efficiency rate over the last six weeks. He has targeted Landry on 28% of throws in those five games.

Contrarian Plays to Target

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs ($25)

Kansas City will likely be the most popular offense to stack this week, and for good reason — their implied point total is the highest on the slate and they have the best quarterback in the league. They should be in everyone’s tournament player pool but most lineups will roster their passing game, making Clyde Edwards-Helaire a great addition to team stacks or a good one-off leverage play. The rookie back exceeded 60% of backfield touches last week for the first time since the Le’Veon Bell signing and if the Chiefs get up big, CEH could approach 20 touches for the first time since Week 6.

WR Denzel Mims, Jets ($14)

It’s important to be able to distinguish which players have actual week-winning performances in their range of outcomes and which might just be able to hit tournament value. For wide receivers, volume and big-play opportunities can win weeks and those big plays usually happen on deep passes. Over the last month, Denzel Mims is one of just 11 players averaging at least eight targets per game with an average target depth over 10 yards — his 18-yard average-target depth leads that group. With that, Mims has accounted for 43.5% of the Jets’ air yards since Week 9, the fifth-highest rate in the league. Consider using Mims in a mini-stack with Nelson Agholor on the other side.

TE Robert Tonyan, Packers ($19)

The Packers will be one of the most popular offenses to stack this week but most rosters will favor the big names in Green Bay. Tonyan offers relatively affordable access to one of the highest-scoring passing offenses in football while offering leverage off of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.

Cash Game Strategy

The backbone of my cash game approach is 4for4’s proprietary value metric, which goes beyond simple point per dollar projections. That value calculation extends to a player’s odds of hitting cash game value based on their implied volatility according to their floor, median, and ceiling projections.

As has been the case in the past few weeks, value can really open up if a few questionable players end up sitting Week 13. Ryan Fitzpatrick is cash viable if he gets the start for Miami while Devontae Booker would be this week’s skeleton key if Josh Jacobs is inactive.

Cash Game Plays

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Rodgers

RB: Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, James Robinson, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler

WR: Brandin Cooks, A.J. Brown, Jarvis Landry, Keke Coutee, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods

TE: Travis Kelce, Kyle Rudolph, Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller

DEF: Vikings, Seahawks, Lions, Packers

This story was originally published on 4for4.com

Follow TJ on Twitter @TJHernandez

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

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