You might have heard that baseball's offseason has been slow. Dreadfully slow. Drive-you-crazy slow.
What's the deal?
Well, one theory is that teams are hesitant to spend too much money this winter because they're gearing up for next winter, when things will most definitely not be slow.
The 2018 free-agent class is unlike anything that's come before it. Headlined by Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper, Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado and possibly even Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, the amount of high-quality players that will be on the market is ridiculous: Dallas Kuechel, Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy, Adam Jones, Gio Gonzalez, Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Andrew McCutchen, Craig Kimbrel and Cody Allen, just to name some of the biggest names.
This winter isn't devoid of high-quality players, of course, with Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Eric Hosmer, J.D. Martinez and others still trying to find a home before spring training starts. But if you're a team looking to be in the running for Harper, Machado, Kershaw or anybody else next winter, you might not want to blow your cash now.
Do the Cubs fit that description?
Both team chairman Tom Ricketts and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein talked about that dynamic during the Cubs Convention this past weekend. It's not exactly a hint at the Cubs' thinking, as the team has been connected to Arrieta, Darvish and other top-of-the-line pitchers all offseason. But the Cubs are one of the oft-speculated destinations for Harper, who's expected to earn the largest contract in baseball history.
"It's a number of factors. Every team has to make decisions in their own best interest, and that's what's going on," Epstein said Friday when asked why this offseason has been so slow-moving. "But there's some macroeconomic trends in the game that probably after the last collective-bargaining agreement teams are just trying to position themselves the best way they can, probably in some cases with one eye on next season's free-agent market, trying to get their payroll where they want it to be. It's hard to say it's any one reason. It's probably a combination of factors. But I don't know that we've ever seen anything quite like this."
"Next year's free-agent class is different than this year's free-agent class," Ricketts said, putting it mildly. "I think what you're seeing with teams out there would rather have dry powder a year from now. … There's a lot of pieces and parts, but ultimately, I think teams are trying to keep their powder dry."
Cubs fans' desire of Harper is no secret, of course, with one questioner even asking Epstein during a Saturday morning panel at the Sheraton Grand Chicago when he'll be able to buy a Harper jersey. Epstein didn't take that bait, but the planets seem to be aligning for the Cubs to make an enticing pitch to bring Harper to the North Side.
A big-market club would figure to have the edge in signing the game's most visible star, and the New York Yankees, always willing to spend, might have taken themselves out of the running this offseason with the trade they made for Giancarlo Stanton, the previous record-holder for baseball's beefiest contract. Not only does Stanton now account for a large portion of the Yankees' payroll for the foreseeable future, but he also crowds the outfield, along with Aaron Judge, perhaps leaving nowhere for Harper to play. Plus, no one is ignoring the connection between Harper and Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, a pair of Las Vegas natives who grew up playing in the same area.
And for Harper, who during his time with the Nationals has never won a playoff series, there are few teams with a more wide-open championship window than the Cubs, who have advanced to the National League Championship Series in each of the past three seasons, including that curse-smashing World Series win in 2016.
But while you would figure the Cubs to be in the bidding for Harper next winter, saving money might not explain why they haven't landed a big fish this winter. They've been connected to the three biggest free-agent starting pitchers on the market - Arrieta, Darvish and Alex Cobb - none of which have signed elsewhere yet. They have an Arrieta-sized hole in the starting rotation that needs filling, and while they have the option to stick with players currently under contract, there's little doubt that going from Arrieta and John Lackey in 2017 to Tyler Chatwood and Mike Montgomery in 2018 would be a downgrade.
The Cubs' front office keeps stating its desire to add a starting pitcher before this offseason is over. Epstein opened the door to that acquisition perhaps not being of the bank-breaking variety, though, indicating over the weekend that it could be a move that simply provides depth for a starting staff realistically no deeper than five guys at the moment. Of course, until Arrieta, Darvish and Cobb are all off the market, the Cubs will have the ability to pursue those guys.
The Cubs also have other looming financial commitments if you look further into the future. Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell and Javy Baez are all slated to become free agents after the 2021 season. The team's top four starting pitchers - Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana and the aforementioned Chatwood - are all slated to become free agents after the 2020 season. So Harper is not the only guy the Cubs have to think about paying.
Saving up for next winter? It might not be the only reason for a lack of activity this offseason. But for teams hoping to be in the Harper sweepstakes - or one of a number of other sweepstakes - it might not be the worst idea.
An indication that for many teams, including the Cubs, this winter is about far more than just the upcoming season.
"Obviously Theo has the resources to do what he has to do to win on the field. We'll see what happens this year," Ricketts said. "I'm not sure what's going to happen with the guys that are out there or whether that's a good fit for us. But everybody's got constrained resources that have to be put together in the right way. We have to think about 2018 and beyond 2018. I just trust those guys to do what's right with those dollars."