Croucher: 'No idea' what Houston will do at pick 2
Jay Croucher, Drew Dinsick, Eric Froton and Vaughn Dalzell debate what direction they believe the Texans will go with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft amid much uncertainty in the current market.
DREW DINSICK: OK, well this time yesterday, I was on the Texans are up to some shenanigans island. I still don't understand what's going on because there were some moments yesterday where a lot of the insiders were very plugged in, and they were like, it's Levis or Tyree. And now here we sit 24 hours later, and it is definitely Anderson, right?
This, to me, spells a lot of intentional misdirection. I don't think, ultimately, we entirely know what the Texans are up to. But maybe it literally was the Texans didn't decide until recently, and that's why there's so much confidence now. But I will close with this. I am still-- my confidence is shrinking enormously. Now losing in the NBA is not helping my confidence. Don't get me wrong.
But my confidence is shrinking enormously in what I think will ultimately happen in this draft. But I still hold out a meaningful percentage that the Texans are playing games to try to get Tennessee to trade up to three. And part of that is the common sense of if they are-- I don't want to use the word stupid because what do I know about any kind of realistic quarterback evaluation for guys who have never taken a snap in the NFL?
But it seems absolutely absurd to me that the Texans would allow Tennessee to trade up to three and let their other-- let their two divisional rivals in Tennessee and Indy take quarterbacks third and fourth, and go into a season with either Davis Mills as plan A or the fourth-best or fifth-best quarterback in the draft as a developmental project. To me, taking a defender at two is almost indefensible and should probably cost people jobs down the road if this doesn't work out.
I mean, maybe none of these guys are worth actually using top-tier draft capital for, and that's fine. If that's the case, I apologize to the Texans front office if they really do pass on a quarterback. But to me, it is almost-- it's borderline malpractice to let your division rivals take the second and third-best quarterbacks in this class and punt on the season. And I would be very concerned if I was in the GM chair and this was my plan A.
So we have yet to see how this plays out, but I would not entirely close the door on the Texans finding football Jesus at some point and taking a quarterback with their second overall pick, ahead of their division rivals. So we shall see.
JAY CROUCHER: Drew, I'll jump in.
DREW DINSICK: Yeah.
JAY CROUCHER: Like you, I'm feeling very philosophical today after our Kevin Love investment ended my life last night. So in this new state of being, the thing that I come back to is that no one has any idea what Houston is doing. These markets are just fake. These are just fake numbers. Will Levis, 48 hours ago, was like minus 150 to go two. Now, apparently, there's no chance whatsoever to go two.
These markets, they move off of air. They move off of nothing. Do not pencil in Will Anderson to go two. He may well go two. But I don't think anyone has any idea what the Texans are going to do. And I kind of come back to Daniel Jeremiah's mock last night in that the thing that has always made the most sense is that CJ Stroud, who is a top-two quarterback prospect, that he would go two to Houston.
And there's been a lot of smoke against that in terms of him sharing an agent with Deshaun, and apparently they don't like him. But apparently, anything can happen. So that's always what's made the most sense. So I wouldn't rule that out either. I, ultimately, think that it just makes too much sense for Stroud to go before Levis because Stroud is better than Levis, and so I'm kind of holding on to that.
But yeah, I have no idea what Houston's going to do at two, and I don't think the market does either. If Will Anderson starts to get into like minus 2000, then that's when it starts to feel pretty real. But Vaughn, in terms of first defensive player drafted, I mean, Tyree Wilson was a huge favorite yesterday. Well, he was like minus 150, minus 180. Now he's plus 135.
Will Anderson is the favorite. These markets are moving around all over the place. Vaughn, do you think that-- do you believe the market on that? Or what's your read there?
VAUGHN DALZELL: Yeah, I mean, I think Will Anderson is a difference maker. Eric and I covered tons of college football all season long, and Will Anderson was clearly the best defensive player in all of college football. And there's a lot of time in between the draft and the end of the regular season where we have to believe someone else may be a better player than someone else.
We come up with reasons with lengths, 40 times, whatsoever. But Will Anderson, I think, is clearly the best defensive player, and he's going to be the second pick. That's why we saw the minus 330 odds. It's not the minus 2000 it's getting to. But what I really wanted to say is, do you not think the Texans could use that 12th pick to move up and get a quarterback and jump someone as well? I mean, there's also potential for them to trade back up. But there's also--
I just don't see the reason why they would go get a quarterback this early when they have a second pick, in my opinion. I think the difference between getting a defensive player at the second overall pick, like Will Anderson, and moving back to the 12th pick and getting a defensive player is substantially different in this draft.
DREW DINSICK: Yeah.
VAUGHN DALZELL: And I think you can get a quarterback that drops back.
DREW DINSICK: Here's my problem. There is a bell curve of GM intelligence. And the common sense one in the middle is stay where you are at two, take CJ Stroud, start your rebuild, right? Then there's the one tail on the end where you think you've got somebody figured out, and you know who your quarterback is going to be, and you keep it an absolute secret. Tell everybody in the universe you're taking a defender so you get your divisional opponent to trade up to three, and then take the guy they want, right?
If that's ultimately what happens here, hats off. Well played, Texans. Oh my God, that would be a masterful chess move, right? The other end of the spectrum is literally you had an offer on the table to upgrade your quarterback position via Mac Jones and the Patriots. Put them in position to take a player that would have prevented your divisional opponents from having him and then still have two additional kind of blue chippers in 12 and 14 to get a good defensive player or maneuver however you want to get kind of a blue chip guy.
So I'm having a really tough time believing that it's that, that we live in this world where the Texans literally are just going to stand pat and take a defensive player and not in any way, shape, or form try to prevent their opponents from getting a guy. Or just in general settle for the fifth-best quarterback in this class, which they apparently have done a lot of work on Hendon Hooker which, OK, good luck, guys.
So yeah, I mean, my head is exploding at this point. And we get to figure out where the Texans are on the spectrum once we see what the number two pick is, I suppose.