Should you be concerned about DeAndre Hopkins' slow start?
Matt Harmon and Dalton Del Don examine the Arizona wide receiver's drop in volume what it means for fantasy.
Hear the full conversation on the Yahoo Fantasy Football Forecast. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever you listen.
Video Transcript
MATT HARMON: Someone whose fantasy box score does not look so fantastic is DeAndre Hopkins. And I kind of think there is reason to be nervous about this one. So in 2019, DeAndre Hopkins' target share was 26% and his air yard share was 32%. In 2020, it's at 19% and 27% for target and air yard share. That's a pretty decent drop year over year, and it makes sense, right?
Because now they've got AJ Green. Like say what you want about AJ Green, but he's played really well for the Cardinals and I don't think he looked-- like he looked pretty bad in Cincinnati last year. He does not look bad this year. I think he looks good and he's been given opportunities and producing with those opportunities. And like Rondale Moore has had his moments and Christian Kirk is having a really good season as a slot receiver. They have-- and they're getting like Max Williams involved and Chase Edmonds out of the backfield.
And the reason that I worry that this is going to stay the way it is, I mean, Hopkins might get up to like 21% or 22%, but 26% plus feels out of the range of outcomes. Because the reason I think this might continue is because Kyler Murray is responding, he's playing well. He's like the most accurate quarterback in the league through the first five weeks. In terms of like a catchable pass perspective, he's right up there near the top of the league. He's at the top of the league in completion percentage over expectations.
So Murray is playing well and the Cardinals are winning. So there's no real incentive to change up the target distribution here. Does this have you concerned about Hopkins rest of season outlook?
DALTON DEL DON: Definitely concerned. I just-- I mean, I think he's more top 20 fantasy wideout moving forward than top five or six like he was drafted. It's possible this slow couple of weeks are just--
MATT HARMON: Top 20? Top 20, Dalton. That's a huge drop.
DALTON DEL DON: Yeah. Yeah. No, it is a concern then. Yes, I do think that is. That drop is possible. That it's the quiet two games have come just because of his injured ribs.
But you mentioned, it's more of the target issue. He entered last week fourth in targets on his own team on the season. Even after getting seven last week, he's barely top 50 in my whopper stat. So you said it, there's all these other options there. And it's really discouraging when you're like, oh, and Kyler Murray is playing like the MVP throwing for 320 yards a game and he's still doing this, you know, underperforming.
So it is a long term concern for me with all the other weapons there. And Hopkins has a rib injury. He's 30 years old. I mean, he's absolutely past his prime for a wide receiver. So yeah, I think he's more like top 20-ish than top five moving forward.
MATT HARMON: Yeah. I mean, top five, like that feels like forget it. I could still see him finishing, because the touchdowns will come. You know, I think the touchdowns will come. The big like target totals, I feel like, again, those are probably gone. I don't think that's going to come back.
DALTON DEL DON: Even then, he had 160 targets last year and he had six touchdowns in this offense. So I don't know, man, if they even use him in the red zone that much like they do with the others. So it'll be better for sure.
MATT HARMON: They have bowling ball James Conner. We're going to talk about James Conner in there. They got James Conner scoring touchdowns. Like we know that Kyler Murray is like the most lethal player in the red zone.
So you might be right. You might be right. He might be still like a five, six touchdown guy, which would be hugely concerning.
DALTON DEL DON: And yeah, you said AJ Green's playing far better than I expected, even Max Williams getting involved. So I mean, he'll be fine. You're going to start him every week. But I do think there is legitimate concerns when you look at his volume.
