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Concacaf World Cup qualifying: USMNT clinching scenarios, predictions for March qualifiers

Drake Hills, Nashville Tennessean
·4 min read

Hostile rivalry has branded Mexico and the U.S. men's national team since 1990. But in 2022 World Cup Qualifying, the two rivals have helped each other fend off other nations from stealing their automatic bids to the World Cup in Qatar.

Three World Cup qualifiers remain. Canada, the U.S. and Mexico are the top three nations in the standings. Panama is next and holding an intercontinental playoff spot, with Costa Rica behind them. Jamaica, El Salvador and Honduras are eliminated. It's possible four Concacaf nations will play in the World Cup, held Nov. 21- Dec. 18.

Concacaf's final qualifying window is March 24-30. The USMNT and Mexico hold the same record (6-2-3, 21 points). The Americans holding the tiebreaker with a +9 goal differential over Mexico (+6).

The USMNT and Mexico will face off March 24 in Mexico City at Estadio Azteca, an infamous ground where the U.S. has never won in qualifying. If the USMNT can replicate Michael Bradley's 50-yard Hail Mary goal from the 2017 edition and earn a draw, a win against Panama three days later should suffice.

If not, here's what the U.S. will need to qualify.

USMNT World Cup clinching scenarios

Without a win or draw at Mexico, three points and a victory against Panama at Exploria Stadium in Orlando – the USMNT's only home qualifier in March – is a must-win, given its track record in Costa Rica. Notably, the U.S. is unbeaten at Exploria Stadium.

Meanwhile, it has never won on Costa Rican soil. Not to mention, the Ticos are unbeaten in their last four qualifiers, winning three of them.

Based on the result in Mexico, here's how the U.S. can qualify.

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USMNT loss at Mexico

Should the U.S. fall to Mexico, and assuming Panama beats winless, eliminated Honduras at home where it is 3-0-2 in qualifiers, the USMNT would have to win or draw vs. Panama to keep pace with Canada, now second-place Mexico and protect third place from Panama, who will now be one point behind.

By March 27, predicting a Canada-Costa Rica draw on March 24, the top 5 could read as follows: Canada (7-0-5, 26 points); Mexico (7-2-3, 24 points); USMNT (6-3-3, 21 points); Panama (6-4-2, 20 points); Costa Rica (4-3-5, 17 points).

Then on March 30, the U.S. would need at least a draw at Costa Rica and hope Canada can scrape the same result at Panama.

The USMNT's Tim Weah (20) dribbles the ball while Mexico's Luis Romo defends during the World Cup qualifier at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati.
The USMNT's Tim Weah (20) dribbles the ball while Mexico's Luis Romo defends during the World Cup qualifier at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati.

USMNT draw at Mexico

If the USMNT can snag just its third positive result in history against Mexico at the Azteca, it would please both nations by preserving the order of the top three as it stood in February, regardless of what Panama does against Honduras and likewise Costa Rica at Canada.

Mexico and the U.S. would have 22 points apiece (6-2-4). Panama, at best, would have 20 (6-4-2) and Costa Rica, 19 (5-3-4).

All the Americans would have to do is avoid a loss against Panama. A win against them, in fact, will secure the U.S. a spot at the World Cup with a qualifier to spare.

USMNT win at Mexico

An unprecedented road win over Mexico is a reason to celebrate alone. But the USMNT could then exchange a tie against Panama with a ticket to Qatar, with 25 points (7-2-4) in the standings.

Regardless of how Panama and Canada would play out on March 30, Panama would mathematically be too far behind to breach the top three because even if it beats Honduras on March 24, a draw against the U.S. would leave Panama with 21 points heading into the final day. Its new primary focus would be staying ahead of Costa Rica.

World Cup qualifying: March predictions

Canada will finish atop the Concacaf octagonal unbeaten with a 8-0-6 record (29 points), becoming just the second nation since the hexagonal era began in 1998 to matriculate through Concacaf World Cup Qualifying without a loss (Mexico, 1998).

The last time Canada finished atop World Cup Qualifying was 1986, its only World Cup appearance.

Mexico (8-2-4 record, 28 points) will finish second, defeating El Salvador, Honduras and tying with the U.S.

The USMNT redeems its failure to qualify for the World Cup in 2018 by posting a 7-3-4 record (25 points) – losing to Mexico, beating Panama and tying with Costa Rica – good enough for the final spot and a ticket to Qatar.

Panama holds onto fourth by one point (6-4-2, 21 points) over Costa Rica. Panama will beat Honduras, lose to the U.S. and tie with Canada, followed by a win over likely Oceanic representative New Zealand in June's intercontinental playoff to qualify for the World Cup.

For stories about Nashville SC or Soccer in Tennessee, contact Drake Hills at DHills@gannett.com. Follow Drake on Twitter at @LiveLifeDrake. Connect with Drake on Instagram at @drakehillssoccer and on Facebook.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: USMNT World Cup qualifying clinching scenarios entering Mexico game