Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble, fire burn and cauldron bubble! It’s bubble season, bubble week, bubble mania, whatever you want to call it. This is the week when “Who’s in or out?” is the central question in not just college basketball, but American sports. This is the week when “first four in” and “last four out” are the words everyone is interested in.

It all leads up to the unveiling of the brackets on Selection Sunday, one of the most special times of the year in American culture. Brackets then get printed out on Monday and Tuesday. The office pools begin. The 15-over-2 upset picks are made. People make their Final Four selections. Then the games begin and brackets get busted. We all know the drill.

This is the true lead-in to Selection Sunday. USC has an excellent chance of making the NCAA Tournament. The Trojans will make a lot of bubble discussions a moot point if they win one game at the Pac-12 Tournament. That will be enough to seal a bid. However, if USC does lose its first game — Thursday night’s quarterfinal — it will be important for other bubble teams to not play their way into the field.

It’s very unlikely USC will be left out, but crazy things can and do happen in March. The Trojans might need a little bit of insurance if they lose on Thursday night. To that end, we give you this extensive bubble guide for all bubble teams competing with USC for one of the final at-large bids in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. We’ll go through the bubble matchups at the various conference tournaments.

NOTE: If you see an asterisk in the title/heading for a listicle slide, that means it is a projected matchup, not a confirmed matchup. Example: Wisconsin has to beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament before it can play Iowa, so when we refer to “Wisconsin vs. Iowa,” we include an asterisk to indicate that it is a projected matchup which hasn’t been officially created yet.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 8: PITTSBURGH IN ACC TOURNAMENT SECOND ROUND

Mar 1, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers forward Blake Hinson (2) drives to the basket in the first half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at the Purcell Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh is likely in the field, but the Panthers will play either Florida State or Georgia Tech, a bad team. A win cements Pitt’s place in the field. A Pitt loss would put the Panthers right near the cut line in that “last four in/first four out” range. As you follow our bubble discussion, any team right near the cut line can be placed in a category which exists between “clearly in” and “clearly out.” We will call this the “long wait” category. The team will have a long wait on Selection Sunday, not knowing if it is in or out. Essentially, “long wait” teams remain on the middle of the bubble. They have not played their way into or out of the field. They are the 50-50 propositions heading into Selection Sunday.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 8: NORTH CAROLINA IN ACC TOURNAMENT SECOND ROUND

Feb 19, 2023; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack head coach Kevin Keatts and North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis interact before the first half of the game at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina must beat the winner of the first-round ACC Tournament game between Boston College and Louisville. If the Tar Heels lose here, they’re done. They’re definitely out.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 8: WISCONSIN IN BIG TEN TOURNAMENT FIRST ROUND

Mar. 2, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Max Klesmit (11) talks with head coach Greg Gard during the second half of their game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Kohl Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Wisconsin faces Ohio State. The Badgers must win this game. If they lose, they’re out.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 8: OKLAHOMA STATE IN BIG 12 TOURNAMENT FIRST ROUND

Mar 4, 2023; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Jaylon Tylson (20) takes a rebound from Oklahoma State Cowboys forward Tyreek Smith (23) in the second half at United Supermarkets Arena. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma State must beat Oklahoma. If the Cowboys lose, they’re out. 

CONFERENCE USA TOURNAMENT

March 9, 2020; Las Vegas, NV, USA; BYU Cougars forward Yoeli Childs (23) shoots the basketball against the Saint Mary’s Gaels during the second half during the semifinal game in the WCC Basketball Championships at Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Dec 10, 2022; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; UAB Blazers head coach Andy Kennedy talks to his team during the second half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at WVU Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

The Conference USA Tournament is important for bubble teams because Florida Atlantic, the regular-season champion, has likely done enough to secure an at-large bid. If the Owls do not win this tournament, another team — maybe UAB, shown above in the photo — will get an automatic bid and reduce the size of the bubble by one team.

There’s another instance of this worth noting in our next slide below:

BIG EAST TOURNAMENT

Jan 11, 2020; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Georgetown Hoyas guard Mac McClung (2) drives to the basket against Villanova Wildcats guard Collin Gillespie (2) during the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Villanova will not get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, but the Wildcats could make a run at the Big East Tournament and win an automatic bid which reduces the size of the bubble. Key detail: Villanova missed out on a first-round bye, so the Wildcats will have to win four games in four days. It’s hard, but not impossible. Georgetown did this two years ago.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 8: ARIZONA STATE VS OREGON STATE, PAC-12 TOURNAMENT FIRST ROUND

January 5, 2023; Tempe, Ariz; USA; ASU head coach Bobby Hurley watches his team play against WSU at Wells Fargo Arena.

Arizona State must win here. If the Sun Devils lose, they’re out. The winner plays USC on Thursday in the Pac-12 quarterfinals.

THURSDAY, MARCH 9: RUTGERS VS MICHIGAN IN BIG TEN TOURNAMENT SECOND ROUND

Feb 20, 2022; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard, right, is involved in a scuffle with Michigan head coach Juwan Howard during the waning moments of their game Sunday, February 20, 2022 at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wis. Wisconsin beat Michigan 77-63. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Rutgers and Michigan meet in a game both teams must win. The loser is definitely out.

Is the winner in? Most people think Rutgers is more likely in than Michigan would be, but it’s a close call. Many people think both teams need a second win at the Big Ten Tournament. We’ll get to that point later on in this article.

THURSDAY, MARCH 9: WISCONSIN VS IOWA IN BIG TEN TOURNAMENT SECOND ROUND*

Nov 25, 2022; Paradise Island, BAHAMAS; USC Trojans forward Kobe Johnson (0) reacts in front of Wisconsin Badgers guard Isaac Lindsey (10) during the second half at Imperial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

If Wisconsin beats Ohio State Wednesday, it would play Iowa on Thursday. Wisconsin must win this game. If it loses, it is out.

The next question: If Wisconsin wins here, is it in the field, or would it have to beat Michigan State in the next round?

We’re not sure, which means Wisconsin should definitely win three games to relieve bubble pressure heading into Selection Sunday.

THURSDAY, MARCH 9: OKLAHOMA STATE VS TEXAS IN BIG 12 TOURNAMENT QUARTERFINALS*

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ – MARCH 27: CBS broadcasters Jim Nantz and Billy Packer stand in front of the St. Joseph’s Hawks mascot and the Oklahoma State Cowboys mascot before the Elite 8 game of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament at Continental Airlines Arena on March 27, 2004 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Cowboys advanced to the Final 4 winning 64-62. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma on Wednesday, it faces Texas on Thursday. Most bracketologists would tell you that OSU needs to beat the Longhorns to get in. If OSU beats Oklahoma but loses to Texas, the Cowboys would be in the “long wait” category, but their chances wouldn’t be great. They wouldn’t be firmly and clearly eliminated, but they would sweat out Selection Sunday.

THURSDAY, MARCH 9: MISSISSIPPI STATE VS FLORIDA IN SEC TOURNAMENT SECOND ROUND

Mar 4, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores forward Myles Stute (10) drives baseline against Mississippi State Bulldogs forward D.J. Jeffries (0) during the second half at Memorial Gymnasium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Mississippi State needs to beat Florida to get in. If the Bulldogs lose, they might still be in the “long wait” category, but their odds would not be good if anything bad happens elsewhere on the bubble (surprising automatic bids, other teams playing their way into the field). They really do need to beat Florida to have a realistic chance.

The real question is whether MSU needs a second win. We’ll deal with that question later on.

THURSDAY, MARCH 9: AUBURN VS ARKANSAS IN SEC TOURNAMENT SECOND ROUND

Dec 18, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Auburn Tigers guard Allen Flanigan (22) moves the ball against Southern California Trojans guard Boogie Ellis (5) during the first half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn should be in the NCAA Tournament after beating Tennessee. Does Arkansas need to win this game? Maybe, but we think the Hogs are in regardless. The reason: Losing to Auburn, an NCAA Tournament team, wouldn’t pull Arkansas down enough on the seed list to push the Razorbacks out of the field. Arkansas is probably playing here to avoid being sent to Dayton for the First Four. If Arkansas was playing a much worse team in the SEC, such as LSU or Ole Miss, then yes, it would absolutely need to win. Playing Auburn helps the Hogs in that regard.

THURSDAY, MARCH 9: VANDERBILT IN SEC TOURNAMENT SECOND ROUND

Mar 4, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Chris Jans shakes hands with Vanderbilt Commodores head coach Jerry Stackhouse before the game at Memorial Gymnasium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

If Vanderbilt can make the final of the SEC Tournament by winning three games this week, it would re-enter the bubble and NCAA Tournament conversations. Anything less won’t do it, but the Commodores at least have an outside chance. If they had not lost to LSU a few weeks ago, they’d be right on the bubble today.

THURSDAY, MARCH 9: NORTH CAROLINA VS VIRGINIA IN ACC TOURNAMENT QUARTERFINALS*

Feb 13, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina must beat Virginia if it advances to the ACC quarterfinals. This is non-negotiable. If UNC does win, the Tar Heels move into the “long wait” category. They aren’t definitely in, but their odds increase considerably.

THURSDAY, MARCH 9: CLEMSON VS NC STATE IN ACC TOURNAMENT QUARTERFINALS*

Clemson forward Hunter Tyson (5) and Clemson sophomore forward PJ Hall (24) celebrate in the closing second of the second half against Wake Forest at Littlejohn Coliseum Friday, December 2, 2022.

Clemson must beat N.C. State here, assuming the Wolfpack win their second-round game against either Virginia Tech or Notre Dame. If Clemson does beat N.C. State, it isn’t clearly in the field, but it would move into the “long wait” category.

THURSDAY, MARCH 9: ARIZONA STATE VS USC IN PAC-12 TOURNAMENT QUARTERFINALS*

ASU Sun Devil guard Desmond Cambridge Jr. (4) shoots the ball over USC Trojans forward Vincent Iwuchukwu (3) at Desert Financial Arena in Tempe on Jan. 21, 2023.

Arizona State must beat USC here, assuming it gets past Oregon State on Wednesday at the Pac-12 Tournament. If the Sun Devils don’t, they’re out. USC losing to ASU probably wouldn’t push the Trojans out of the field. ASU is a decent team, so the negative effect on USC’s position would be minimal. USC also beat ASU twice already this season. USC could fall to the First Four in Dayton with a loss here, but it shouldn’t fall out of the field altogether.

Just as a point of comparison, the Trojans would be in much worse shape if they play and lose to Oregon State in this game, instead of losing to Arizona State. That’s a loss which (if it happens) would have a much worse effect on USC’s position. ASU beating Oregon State on Wednesday could essentially seal USC’s place in the field, though it is worth noting that an Oregon State win knocks ASU out and therefore could preserve USC’s spot anyway.

Bottom line: The Trojans are 90-95 percent likely to make the field. It’s ASU which is in real trouble.

THURSDAY, MARCH 9: NEVADA VS SAN JOSE STATE IN MOUNTAIN WEST QUARTERFINALS

Feb 27, 2023; Laramie, Wyoming, USA; Nevada Wolf Pack head coach Steve Alford reacts against the Wyoming Cowboys during the second half at Arena-Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

Nevada’s losses to Wyoming and UNLV have put the Wolf Pack in a bind. They must win this game against San Jose State. If they lose, they’re definitely out.

THURSDAY, MARCH 9: UTAH STATE VS NEW MEXICO IN MOUNTAIN WEST QUARTERFINALS*

Mar 1, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Utah State Aggies guard Sean Bairstow (2) reacts with the bench to hitting a 3-point shot against the UNLV Rebels in the second half at Thomas & Mack Center. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

New Mexico has to beat Wyoming to face Utah State at the Mountain West Tournament. If USU plays UNM, it must win. The Aggies don’t have many road or neutral wins. They can’t lose their first game in Vegas and expect to make the Big Dance. This one is a must. If USU wins, it moves into the “long wait” category.

FRIDAY, MARCH 10: RUTGERS OR MICHIGAN VS PURDUE, BIG TEN QUARTERFINALS*

Mar 13, 2020; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Big Ten Conference mens basketball tournament signage is seen on the side of the downtown J.W. Marriott Hotel following the cancellation of the tournament due to concerns over the Covid 19 coronavirus. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The Rutgers-Michigan winner survives to play Purdue on Friday at the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan probably needs to beat the Boilermakers to get in, but it might still have a slight chance to get in without a victory over Purdue. We wouldn’t like UM’s odds, however.

If Rutgers plays Purdue and loses, the Scarlet Knights would be in the “long wait” category heading into Selection Sunday. The fact that they did win at Purdue would help them if they can’t beat the Boilermakers a second time.

Our advice to these two teams: Beat Purdue on Friday. Breathe easier on Selection Sunday.

FRIDAY, MARCH 10: WISCONSIN VS MICHIGAN STATE, BIG TEN QUARTERFINALS*

B1G letters sit on Monument Circle before the NCAA Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis, Tuesday, March 10, 2020.

Wisconsin isn’t definitely in with a win over Iowa on Thursday, but the Badgers could punch their ticket if they beat Michigan State on Friday. Wisconsin would be in the “long wait” category if it loses to Tom Izzo’s Spartans.

FRIDAY, MARCH 10: MISSISSIPPI STATE VS ALABAMA IN SEC QUARTERFINALS*

Tennessee guard Zakai Zeigler (5) pumps up the crowd in the final minutes of a basketball game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Alabama Crimson Tide held at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, Tenn., on Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2023.

Tennessee beat Alabama. Mississippi State might need to beat Alabama to make the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs probably aren’t eliminated with a loss, but again, if a bubble team wants to close the sale and punch its ticket, it needs to win these games against top seeds. Losing these games puts the matter in the hands of the selection committee. Playing your way in is the safest path. MSU doesn’t want to leave the matter unresolved heading into Selection Sunday.

FRIDAY, MARCH 10: ARIZONA STATE VS ARIZONA IN PAC-12 SEMIFINALS*

Feb 25, 2023; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona State San Devils guard Desmond Cambridge Jr. (4) is surrounded by his teammates after his buzzer-beating 3-pointer to win 89-88 over the Arizona Wildcats at McKale Center.

USC fans obviously hope this matchup doesn’t emerge, but if it does, ASU might need to win to make the NCAA Tournament. If the Sun Devils reach Friday’s Pac-12 semifinals and lose, they’re aren’t out. They will have given themselves a chance and would be in the “long wait” category. However, if they beat Arizona, they would punch their ticket and eliminate any and all doubt.

FRIDAY, MARCH 10: NORTH CAROLINA VS CLEMSON IN ACC SEMIFINALS*

Mar 5, 2022; Durham, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Armando Bacot (5) and guard Leaky Black (1) celebrate a win against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Tar Heels won 94-81. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s say that North Carolina beats Virginia and Clemson beats N.C. State to make the ACC semifinals on Friday night. Would this be a “winner in” bubble game, or a “loser out” bubble game, or both, or neither?

The best answer? Probably both. The winner would make a really strong case by reaching the ACC Tournament final and getting multiple quality wins away from home on a neutral floor. The loser walks away with only one notable win this week instead of two. It’s hard to see both Carolina and Clemson getting in if they meet, and it’s hard to see the winner not making the field.

Our advice to the Tar Heels and Tigers: Make the ACC final and reduce bubble questions heading into Selection Sunday.

FRIDAY, MARCH 10: NEVADA VS SAN DIEGO STATE IN MOUNTAIN WEST SEMIFINALS*

Feb 27, 2023; Laramie, Wyoming, USA; Nevada Wolf Pack head coach Steve Alford reacts against the Wyoming Cowboys during the second half at Arena-Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

If Nevada beats San Jose State on Thursday, it would face San Diego State on Friday. Does Nevada need to win here to make it? We think so, but a loss doesn’t fully eliminate the Wolf Pack, who would be in the “long wait” category heading into Selection Sunday. As we keep saying, however, teams can eliminate worries by winning these statement games in conference tournaments. If they don’t, they leave it up to the committee, which is not a good place to be.

FRIDAY, MARCH 10: UTAH STATE VS BOISE STATE IN MOUNTAIN WEST SEMIFINALS*

Feb 22, 2023; Boise, Idaho, USA; New Mexico Lobos guard KJ Jenkins (0) drives during the first half against the Boise State Broncos at ExtraMile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

If Utah State beats New Mexico to stay alive in the bubble conversation, this game against Boise State could be the ticket-puncher for the Aggies. If they win, they’re very likely in. If they lose, they face the long wait of a 50-50 bubble team heading into Selection Sunday.

SATURDAY, MARCH 11 AND SUNDAY, MARCH 12: OVERVIEW

Brooklyn Cardoza, 6, and her sister Lyla Cardoza, 3, chase bubbles as Central Valley Christian students started the new school year Wednesday, August 10, 2022.

Villanova might play in the Big East Tournament final on Saturday. Vanderbilt might play in the SEC semifinals on Saturday. A dark-horse team could play Houston in the AAC Tournament final on Sunday. These and other teams could be playing for unexpected automatic or at-large bids which shrink the bubble. Stay with us here at Trojans Wire for complete NCAA Tournament bubble coverage.

Story originally appeared on Trojans Wire